Us Open NY, U.S.A. Hard Grand Slam Round of 64

Denis Shapovalov vs Luca Van Assche: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Denis Shapovalov

Rank: #47
57%
VS

Luca Van Assche

Rank: #40
43%
Expected Total Games: 35.5
Predicted Winner: Denis Shapovalov

Why the Model Favors Denis Shapovalov

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Recent record by level +11.1 Denis Shapovalov
Age +2.9 Luca Van Assche
Surface fit +2.2 Luca Van Assche
Overall strength +2.1 Denis Shapovalov
Recent form +1.8 Denis Shapovalov

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 57% for Denis Shapovalov. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Ranking Trends

Denis Shapovalov

  • Current #47 2026-08-24
  • 3 mo ago #39 2026-05-25
  • 6 mo ago #39 2026-03-02
  • 9 mo ago #23 2025-12-01
  • 12 mo ago #29 2025-08-25

Luca Van Assche

  • Current #40 2026-08-24
  • 3 mo ago #100 2026-05-25
  • 6 mo ago #105 2026-03-02
  • 9 mo ago #166 2025-12-01
  • 12 mo ago #204 2025-08-25

Player Metrics

Denis Shapovalov

Form Index: 41.7
ELO Rating: 1634.5
Glicko2 Rating: 1684.9
Current Fatigue (minutes): 174.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 30.0
Clay: 11.4
Grass: 9.1
Serve Rating: 96.2
Return Rating: 90.7

Luca Van Assche

Form Index: 62.3
ELO Rating: 1643.1
Glicko2 Rating: 1654.7
Current Fatigue (minutes): 174.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 18.4
Clay: 21.3
Grass: 2.0
Serve Rating: 94.2
Return Rating: 88.6

Recent Matches

Denis Shapovalov
✅ ❌ ✅ ❌ ❌

Luca Van Assche
✅ ❌ ❌ ✅ ✅

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Denis Shapovalov
vs
0
Luca Van Assche
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

At the US Open in New York, round of 64 on hard courts, Denis Shapovalov is favored to progress in this grand slam match against Luca Van Assche. The model picks Shapovalov to win with a 57.21 percent probability versus 42.79 percent for Van Assche. The contest is projected to last about 35.5 games.

Match Analysis

The model’s edge for Shapovalov is driven primarily by his recent record by level (+11.1 percentage points), supported by modest boosts from overall strength (+2.1) and recent form (+1.8). Shapovalov sits at rank 47 with an Elo of 1634.45 and a form index of 41.68. He has tournament fatigue of 174 minutes on court and a surface strength index of 29.99. His recent matches show wins over Miomir Kecmanovic and Adrian Mannarino and a loss to Rafael Jodar, showing resilience in hard court conditions. Van Assche gains model credit from age and surface fit, adding +2.9 and +2.2 points respectively. He is ranked 40 with a slightly higher Elo at 1643.15 and a stronger form index of 62.28. His surface strength index is lower at 18.39 and his fatigue is identical to Shapovalov at 174 minutes. Recent results for Van Assche include a notable win over Cameron Norrie at the US Open, tempered by earlier losses to Aleksandar Kovacevic and Yannick Hanfmann. Serve and return mean indices are similar for both players, so neither has a clear measurable serving edge from those indexes.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 35.5 Most likely outcome: 34 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Denis Shapovalov - Luca Van Assche) +1.3 Most likely spread: +1 (Denis Shapovalov wins 1 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for this hard court match is 14.27 total aces, with predicted aces split of 9.34 for Shapovalov and 4.99 for Van Assche. The double faults prediction is 12.23 total, with expected double faults of 6.88 for Shapovalov and 5.39 for Van Assche. Hard courts usually produce a moderate number of aces compared with grass or clay, which aligns with these predicted aces and expected double faults numbers.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 14.3 Most likely: 12 aces Per player: Denis Shapovalov 9.3 + Luca Van Assche 5.0
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 12.2 Most likely: 11 double faults Per player: Denis Shapovalov 6.9 + Luca Van Assche 5.4

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

🎯 Aces by Player

Denis Shapovalov

Expected 9.3 aces

Luca Van Assche

Expected 5.0 aces

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

❌ Double Faults by Player

Denis Shapovalov

Expected 6.9 double faults

Luca Van Assche

Expected 5.4 double faults

🎯 Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

43.7% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO5

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Denis Shapovalov's perspective)

3-0 Most likely set score (26.5%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Shapovalov’s edge stems mainly from his stronger recent results by tournament level and slightly better overall metrics. Watch his serve consistency and the early breaks as the key factor that will likely decide this match.

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