Rome Italy Clay Masters 1000 Round of 32

Ugo Humbert vs Dino Prizmic: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Ugo Humbert

Rank: #33
45%
VS

Dino Prizmic

Rank: #79
55%
Expected Total Games: 26.1
Predicted Winner: Dino Prizmic

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Ranking Trends

Ugo Humbert

  • Current #33 2026-05-04
  • 3 mo ago #38 2026-02-02
  • 6 mo ago #37 2025-11-03
  • 9 mo ago #25 2025-08-04
  • 12 mo ago #22 2025-05-05

Dino Prizmic

  • Current #79 2026-05-04
  • 3 mo ago #121 2026-02-02
  • 6 mo ago #121 2025-11-03
  • 9 mo ago #129 2025-08-04
  • 12 mo ago #334 2025-05-05

Player Metrics

Ugo Humbert

Form Index: 45.4
ELO Rating: 1699.6
Glicko2 Rating: 1753.7
Current Fatigue (minutes): 75.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 29.1
Clay: 14.5
Grass: 12.1
Serve Rating: 96.6
Return Rating: 91.0

Dino Prizmic

Form Index: 76.5
ELO Rating: 1802.9
Glicko2 Rating: 1777.9
Current Fatigue (minutes): 397.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 19.9
Clay: 30.4
Grass: 8.6
Serve Rating: 94.5
Return Rating: 86.7

Recent Matches

Ugo Humbert
✅ ❌ ❌ ✅ ❌

Dino Prizmic
✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Novak Djokovic (2-1) clay Rome 135 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Marton Fucsovics (2-0) clay Rome 109 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Federico Bondioli (2-0) clay Rome 73 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Chris Rodesch (2-0) clay Rome 80 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Tomas Martin Etcheverry (1-2) clay Madrid 130 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Ugo Humbert
vs
0
Dino Prizmic
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

At the Rome Masters 1000 on clay, Round of 32 pits Ugo Humbert against Dino Prizmic in a matchup that pairs a higher-ranked Frenchman with a rising Wilsonian. The model favors Dino Prizmic to advance (54.68% win probability) over Ugo Humbert (45.32%), with a projected 26.06 total games in the match — suggesting a straight-set affair that could still produce tight sets.

Match Analysis

Humbert arrives as world No. 33 with an Elo of 1699.6, a strong mean serve index (96.6) and an excellent return index (91.0), but modest surface strength on clay (14.5) and only 75 minutes of court time in the event so far. His form index sits at 45.4. Prizmic, ranked 79, carries a higher Elo (1802.9) and a notably higher form index (76.45) into Rome; his clay surface strength (30.4) is better than Humbert’s, and his mean serve and return indices (94.5 and 86.7) are competitive. The fatigue gap is stark: Prizmic has logged 397 minutes this week versus Humbert’s 75, a factor that may influence late-match dynamics. Recent form underlines that contrast. Humbert is 1-2 over his last three matches, beating Vit Kopriva in Rome but losing earlier to Terence Atmane and Jannik Sinner in clay events. Prizmic is on a hot streak in Rome, 3-0 in his last three matches with wins over Federico Bondioli, Marton Fucsovics and Novak Djokovic, showing consistency through longer matches (including a 135-minute victory).

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 26.1 Most likely outcome: 26 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Ugo Humbert - Dino Prizmic) +0.1 Most likely spread: 0 (even number of games won)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for this clash is modest: the predicted aces total is 7.69, reflecting clay’s tendency to suppress free points. The double faults prediction — expected double faults of 5.08 — is also notable, with fatigue likely to drive miscues. Neither player has a dramatically superior serve index, so the predicted aces figure leans on modest serving power and return strength on a slow surface.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 7.7 Most likely: 7 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 5.1 Most likely: 5 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

🎯 Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

39.3% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Ugo Humbert's perspective)

2-0 Most likely set score (32.8%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Prizmic’s higher form index and superior Elo on clay give him a measurable edge, despite his heavy minutes in the tournament. The key factor to watch will be physical freshness late in sets: if fatigue elevates error counts, the match could tilt quickly.

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