Santiago Chile Clay Atp 250 Round of 32

Elmer Moller vs Roman Andres Burruchaga: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Elmer Moller

Rank: #127
35%
VS

Roman Andres Burruchaga

Rank: #96
65%
Expected Total Games: 21.1
Predicted Winner: Roman Andres Burruchaga

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Player Metrics

Elmer Moller

Form Index: 28.8
ELO Rating: 457.4
Glicko2 Rating: 1533.9
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 2.7
Clay: 3.5
Grass: 4.3
Serve Rating: 36.0
Return Rating: 65.9

Roman Andres Burruchaga

Form Index: 45.9
ELO Rating: 605.0
Glicko2 Rating: 1538.5
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 4.1
Clay: 5.5
Grass: 5.3
Serve Rating: 96.1
Return Rating: 94.9

Recent Matches

Elmer Moller

  • Last Match: vs Francesco Passaro (0-2) clay Rio 109 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Elias Ymer (1-2) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Marc Polmans (2-0) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Dino Prizmic (0-2) clay Umag 110 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Filip Misolic (1-2) clay Bastad 161 min

Roman Andres Burruchaga

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Elmer Moller
vs
0
Roman Andres Burruchaga
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

This first-round match in Santiago, Chile is a Round of 32 contest on clay at a 250-level event. The model favors Roman Andres Burruchaga to win (64.88%) over Elmer Moller (35.12%), with a projected total of about 21.13 games in the match.

Match Analysis

Burruchaga enters with the higher ranking (96 vs 127), a stronger Elo (604.96 vs 457.39) and a better recent form index (45.93 vs 28.80). Both players report no tournament fatigue, so freshness should not be a factor. Surface strength indices are modest for both (Moller 3.53, Burruchaga 5.50), indicating neither is a dominant clay-court specialist according to the proprietary index. There is a large gap in serving and returning metrics: Burruchaga’s mean serve index (96.12) is much higher than Moller’s (35.99) — a difference greater than 5 points — and his mean return index (94.92) also comfortably exceeds Moller’s (65.92), another gap above 5 points. Recent match trends show inconsistency on clay for both: Moller lost his last clay outing in Rio to Francesco Passaro after a long three-match stretch that included a deep, physical Australian Open match win and loss; Burruchaga has mixed clay results too, beating Camilo Ugo Carabelli but losing to Vit Kopriva and to Tomas Etcheverry in prior events. Overall, the statistical edge lies with Burruchaga in baseline metrics and serve-return profile.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 21.1 Most likely outcome: 21 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Probability distribution chart for total games in Elmer Moller versus Roman Andres Burruchaga. The X-axis shows possible total games values and the Y-axis shows the predicted probability percentage for each outcome.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total games in Elmer Moller versus Roman Andres Burruchaga. The curve rises from 0% to 100%, showing the cumulative probability for each games total threshold.

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Elmer Moller - Roman Andres Burruchaga) -2.5 Most likely spread: -3 (Roman Andres Burruchaga wins 3 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Probability distribution chart for games spread in Elmer Moller versus Roman Andres Burruchaga. Positive values indicate Elmer Moller winning more games, negative values indicate Roman Andres Burruchaga winning more games.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for games spread in Elmer Moller versus Roman Andres Burruchaga. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each spread threshold.

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for the match is 14.6 total and the double faults prediction is 3.7 total. On clay, predicted aces tend to be lower because the surface slows the ball and increases bounce, reducing free points; this supports a conservative aces prediction. Given Burruchaga’s substantially higher serve rating, he is likely to contribute a larger share of the predicted aces, while both players could register the expected double faults as rallies lengthen.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 14.6 Most likely: 14 aces
Expected Total Double Faults 3.7 Most likely: 3 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Probability distribution chart for total aces in Elmer Moller versus Roman Andres Burruchaga. Higher ace counts are more likely on faster surfaces like grass.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total aces in Elmer Moller versus Roman Andres Burruchaga. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each aces threshold.

Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Probability distribution chart for double faults in Elmer Moller versus Roman Andres Burruchaga. Clay surface matches tend to produce more double faults due to fatigue in longer rallies.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for double faults in Elmer Moller versus Roman Andres Burruchaga. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each double faults threshold.

Final Prediction

Burruchaga’s superior Elo, form index and markedly better serve/return metrics give him the edge in Santiago. Watch his serve and first-strike aggression — if he holds serve comfortably early, the match should trend toward the modeled outcome.

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