Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Alejandro Tabilo: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

On paper Auger‑Aliassime holds the clearer credentials: a world No.5 ranking, higher Elo (1823.0) and a slightly stronger form index (61.9) than Tabilo (rank 35, Elo 1739.7, form 59.1). Felix’s surface strength index on clay (32.8) is notably higher than Tabilo’s (23.7), giving him an edge adapting to the heavier rallies that the Paris dirt demands. That said, both players show very similar serving profiles — mean serve indices are almost identical — and both possess strong return numbers, so service holds and tactical variety will still be decisive. Fatigue is a factor: Auger‑Aliassime arrives with 522 minutes on court in this tournament versus Tabilo’s 348, which could influence intensity in long tennis exchanges late in sets. Recent form supports the prediction — Felix is unbeaten in his three Roland‑Garros matches (all wins through to the Round of 16), while Tabilo has taken two straight clay wins here after a prior loss in Rome. Both have handled the earlier rounds well, but Felix’s deeper season metrics and higher Elo point to steadier performance under pressure.