Indian Wells CA, U.S.A. Hard Masters 1000 Round of 64

Gael Monfils vs Felix Auger-Aliassime: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Gael Monfils

Rank: #170
29%
VS

Felix Auger-Aliassime

Rank: #8
71%
Expected Total Games: 24.0
Predicted Winner: Felix Auger-Aliassime

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Ranking Trends

Gael Monfils

  • Current #170 2026-02-23
  • 3 mo ago #68 2025-12-01
  • 6 mo ago #49 2025-08-25
  • 9 mo ago #42 2025-05-26
  • 12 mo ago #42 2025-03-03

Felix Auger-Aliassime

  • Current #8 2026-02-23
  • 3 mo ago #5 2025-12-01
  • 6 mo ago #27 2025-08-25
  • 9 mo ago #27 2025-05-26
  • 12 mo ago #18 2025-03-03

Player Metrics

Gael Monfils

Form Index: 34.3
ELO Rating: 754.0
Glicko2 Rating: 1598.2
Current Fatigue (minutes): 82.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 5.4
Clay: 6.3
Grass: 7.3
Serve Rating: 71.6
Return Rating: 50.8

Felix Auger-Aliassime

Form Index: 67.0
ELO Rating: 3806.2
Glicko2 Rating: 1698.2
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 26.6
Clay: 31.9
Grass: 32.8
Serve Rating: 98.5
Return Rating: 87.4

Recent Matches

Gael Monfils
✅ ❌ ✅ ❌ ❌

Felix Auger-Aliassime
❌ ✅ ✅ ✅ ❌

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Gael Monfils
vs
0
Felix Auger-Aliassime
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

At Indian Wells in California, the round of 64 on outdoor hard courts pits veteran Gael Monfils against Felix Auger-Aliassime in a Masters 1000 setting. The model projects Auger-Aliassime as the clear favorite — 70.78% to win versus 29.22% for Monfils — with an expected total of about 24.0 games in the match.

Match Analysis

The numbers underline a marked gap. Auger-Aliassime arrives as world No. 8 with an Elo of 3806 and a strong form index (67.0); Monfils sits at No. 170 with an Elo of 754 and a lower form score (34.3). Monfils carries 82 minutes of match play into this encounter, while Auger-Aliassime shows zero cumulative fatigue in this tournament. Surface strength also favors Auger-Aliassime (26.6 vs Monfils’ 5.4). Serve and return profiles are decisive: Felix’s mean serve index (98.5) far outstrips Monfils’ (71.6) by roughly 27 points, and his mean return index (87.4) eclipses Monfils’ (50.8) by a similar margin. Those differences suggest Felix will both start free points on serve and put pressure on Monfils’ service games. Monfils’ recent form shows two wins and a loss in his last three hard-court matches, including a straight-sets win at Indian Wells qualifying (82 minutes) and a previous victory in Acapulco; the loss to Valentin Vacherot is the outlier. Auger-Aliassime has two wins followed by a loss to Daniil Medvedev in Dubai, but his overall consistency and higher metrics favor him here.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 24.0 Most likely outcome: 24 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Gael Monfils - Felix Auger-Aliassime) +0.7 Most likely spread: 0 (even number of games won)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for this hard-court clash is elevated: predicted aces sit at about 19.38 for the match, while the expected double faults are 5.72. On medium-paced hard courts, serve rewards both power and accuracy; Felix’s significantly higher serve rating should inflate the ace tally, making him the primary source of the match’s service winners. The expected double faults are moderate and consistent with these players’ profiles on this surface.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 19.4 Most likely: 19 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 5.7 Most likely: 5 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Auger-Aliassime’s superior serve, return and overall ratings give him a clear edge over Monfils, whose fatigue and lower surface index are limiting factors. Watch Felix’s serve efficiency and early returns — those will likely decide whether this stays short and decisive or becomes more competitive.

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