Indian Wells CA, U.S.A. Hard Masters 1000 Round of 64

Flavio Cobolli vs Miomir Kecmanovic: AI Prediction | Games, Aces & Double Faults

Flavio Cobolli

Rank: #20
52%
VS

Miomir Kecmanovic

Rank: #84
48%
Expected Total Games: 23.1
Predicted Winner: Flavio Cobolli

Player Metrics

Flavio Cobolli

Form Index: 64.7
ELO Rating: 1574.8
Glicko2 Rating: 1662.6
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 7.6
Clay: 15.4
Grass: 16.1
Serve Rating: 66.5
Return Rating: 53.1

Miomir Kecmanovic

Form Index: 63.1
ELO Rating: 1173.3
Glicko2 Rating: 1611.3
Current Fatigue (minutes): 61.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 10.2
Clay: 8.7
Grass: 8.8
Serve Rating: 97.9
Return Rating: 91.2

Recent Matches

Flavio Cobolli

  • Last Match: vs Frances Tiafoe (2-0) hard Acapulco 129 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Miomir Kecmanovic (2-1) hard Acapulco 146 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Yibing Wu (2-0) hard Acapulco 95 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Dalibor Svrcina (2-0) hard Acapulco 109 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez (2-0) hard Acapulco 118 min

Miomir Kecmanovic

  • Last Match: vs Daniel Altmaier (2-0) hard Indian Wells 61 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Flavio Cobolli (1-2) hard Acapulco 146 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Terence Atmane (2-0) hard Acapulco 90 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Alexander Zverev (2-1) hard Acapulco 155 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Tristan Schoolkate (2-0) hard Acapulco 63 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

1
Flavio Cobolli
vs
0
Miomir Kecmanovic
Hard
1 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Indian Wells, California — Round of 64 on outdoor hard courts at a Masters 1000 event. The model gives Flavio Cobolli the slight edge: predicted winner Flavio Cobolli 52.43% vs Miomir Kecmanovic 47.57%, with an expected total of about 23.13 games in the match.

Match Analysis

Cobolli arrives as the higher-ranked player (No. 20) with a strong Elo (1574.8) and a form index of 64.7. He shows no cumulative fatigue in this tournament (0 minutes on court) and his surface strength index is 7.61. Kecmanovic is ranked 84 with a lower Elo (1173.3) and a close form reading (63.1), but he carries 61 minutes of match play so far at Indian Wells and posts a slightly higher surface strength index (10.18). The serving and returning profiles are markedly different: Kecmanovic’s mean serve index (97.86) is far superior to Cobolli’s (66.47) — a gap larger than 5 points — and his mean return index (91.15) likewise outstrips Cobolli’s (53.09), another large gap that shapes the matchup dynamics. Recent form tells a clear story. Cobolli is unbeaten across his last three matches — wins in Acapulco over Yibing Wu (2-0), Kecmanovic (2-1) and then Frances Tiafoe (2-0) — showing consistency in multi-set encounters (matches ranged 95–146 minutes). Kecmanovic has two wins in his last three, most recently a 2-0 victory over Daniel Altmaier in 61 minutes at Indian Wells, but he also lost to Cobolli in Acapulco in a 146-minute battle.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 23.1 Most likely outcome: 23 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for the match sits at about 16.46 total, while the expected double faults are roughly 5.44. On medium-paced hard courts, predicted aces are moderate — the surface rewards both serve power and return ability. Given Kecmanovic’s significantly higher serve rating, he is likely to be the main contributor to the ace count in this projected total; that should also affect the distribution of expected double faults between the two.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 16.5 Most likely: 16 aces
Expected Total Double Faults 5.4 Most likely: 5 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

Final Prediction

Cobolli’s edge comes from higher rank, superior Elo and recent head-to-head success combined with zero cumulative minutes on court in this event. The key factor to watch is Kecmanovic’s serve/return firepower versus Cobolli’s match control and freshness; how Cobolli neutralizes Kecmanovic’s serve will likely decide the outcome.

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