Roland Garros France Clay Grand Slam Round of 64

Flavio Cobolli vs Yibing Wu: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Flavio Cobolli

Rank: #12
67%
VS

Yibing Wu

Rank: #93
33%
Expected Total Games: 38.5
Predicted Winner: Flavio Cobolli

Also available in Claude. Query these predictions in plain language — our native connector lets Claude call our models on demand, no code.

Set it up

Player Metrics

Flavio Cobolli

Form Index: 48.3
ELO Rating: 1803.8
Glicko2 Rating: 1810.0
Current Fatigue (minutes): 174.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 24.5
Clay: 33.5
Grass: 29.9
Serve Rating: 95.5
Return Rating: 92.4

Yibing Wu

Form Index: 51.6
ELO Rating: 1645.2
Glicko2 Rating: 1707.7
Current Fatigue (minutes): 174.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 25.7
Clay: 11.2
Grass: 7.2
Serve Rating: 93.9
Return Rating: 85.4

Recent Matches

Flavio Cobolli

  • Last Match: vs Andrea Pellegrino (3-0) clay Roland Garros 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Ignacio Buse (0-2) clay Hamburg 91 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Thiago Agustin Tirante (0-2) clay Rome 78 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Terence Atmane (2-0) clay Rome 106 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Alexander Zverev (0-2) clay Madrid 90 min

Yibing Wu

  • Last Match: vs Marcos Giron (3-0) clay Roland Garros 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Titouan Droguet (1-0) clay Madrid 88 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Manas Dhamne (2-0) clay Madrid 75 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Alex Bolt (0-2) clay Houston 88 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Gabriel Diallo (0-2) hard Miami 90 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

1
Flavio Cobolli
vs
0
Yibing Wu
Hard
1 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Roland Garros, Paris — Round of 64 on clay, a grand slam stage where heavy hitters are tempered by the slow, high-bouncing surface. The model favors Flavio Cobolli to advance, with a 67.16% probability over Yibing Wu (32.84%). The match is expected to be relatively brief for a best-of-five, with a predicted total of about 38.5 games.

Match Analysis

Cobolli arrives as the higher-ranked player (No. 12) with an Elo of 1803.8 and a form index of 48.26. His surface strength index (33.47) is substantially higher than Wu’s (11.25), signalling a clearer comfort on clay. Cobolli’s mean return index (92.37) is notably superior to Wu’s (85.38) by roughly seven points — a meaningful advantage on clay where returning and constructing points off the second serve is crucial. Both players show strong serving profiles (mean serve indices of 95.55 for Cobolli and 93.91 for Wu), so serve alone may not decide the match. Yibing Wu is ranked 93 with an Elo of 1645.2 and a slightly higher form index (51.61). Both players carry identical cumulative fatigue from the tournament (174 minutes), reflecting long opening-round battles, and that shared wear could influence late-match consistency. Reviewing the last three listed matches: Cobolli’s entries show a lengthy straight-sets win at Roland Garros (3-0, 174 minutes) and two earlier clay defeats in Hamburg and Rome; Wu’s recent ledger includes a straight-sets win at Roland Garros (3-0, 174 minutes) along with two other clay matches in Madrid. Those results suggest Cobolli’s clay aptitude and superior return metrics tilt the matchup in his favor.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 38.5 Most likely outcome: 38 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Probability distribution chart for total games in Flavio Cobolli versus Yibing Wu. The X-axis shows possible total games values and the Y-axis shows the predicted probability percentage for each outcome.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total games in Flavio Cobolli versus Yibing Wu. The curve rises from 0% to 100%, showing the cumulative probability for each games total threshold.

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Flavio Cobolli - Yibing Wu) +1.3 Most likely spread: +1 (Flavio Cobolli wins 1 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Probability distribution chart for games spread in Flavio Cobolli versus Yibing Wu. Positive values indicate Flavio Cobolli winning more games, negative values indicate Yibing Wu winning more games.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for games spread in Flavio Cobolli versus Yibing Wu. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each spread threshold.

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for this match is 13.29 total (predicted aces), and the double faults prediction is 6.23 total (expected double faults). On slow clay, aces tend to be suppressed due to the higher bounce and reduced post-bounce speed, so the predicted aces reflect that surface effect. Neither player has a dramatically higher serve rating to drive a spike in aces, while accumulated fatigue could elevate the expected double faults late in the contest.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 13.3 Most likely: 13 aces
Expected Total Double Faults 6.2 Most likely: 6 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Probability distribution chart for total aces in Flavio Cobolli versus Yibing Wu. Higher ace counts are more likely on faster surfaces like grass.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total aces in Flavio Cobolli versus Yibing Wu. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each aces threshold.

Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Probability distribution chart for double faults in Flavio Cobolli versus Yibing Wu. Clay surface matches tend to produce more double faults due to fatigue in longer rallies.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for double faults in Flavio Cobolli versus Yibing Wu. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each double faults threshold.

🎯 Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

40.9% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO5

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Flavio Cobolli's perspective)

3-0 Most likely set score (36.8%)
Probability distribution of the final set score from Flavio Cobolli's perspective. Format: BO5.

Final Prediction

Cobolli’s higher ranking, stronger clay surface index and a clear edge in return quality provide the decisive edge in the model. The key factor to watch will be Cobolli’s ability to convert return pressure into breaks early; on clay, that typically determines control of the scoreboard.

Get Daily Tennis Predictions

Enjoyed this analysis? Subscribe to our Telegram channel and receive daily AI-driven tennis predictions directly on your phone.

Join Our Telegram Channel