Australian Open Australia Hard Grand Slam Round of 64

Francesco Maestrelli vs Novak Djokovic: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Francesco Maestrelli

Rank: #141
21%
VS

Novak Djokovic

Rank: #4
79%
Expected Total Games: 37.5
Predicted Winner: Novak Djokovic

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Ranking Trends

Francesco Maestrelli

  • Current #141 2026-01-12
  • 3 mo ago #153 2025-10-20
  • 6 mo ago #179 2025-07-21
  • 9 mo ago #296 2025-04-21
  • 12 mo ago #237 2025-01-13

Novak Djokovic

  • Current #4 2026-01-12
  • 3 mo ago #5 2025-10-20
  • 6 mo ago #6 2025-07-21
  • 9 mo ago #5 2025-04-21
  • 12 mo ago #7 2025-01-13

Player Metrics

Francesco Maestrelli

Form Index: 88.9
ELO Rating: 565.8
Glicko2 Rating: 1538.1
Current Fatigue (minutes): 696.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 2.5
Clay: 2.9
Grass: 2.9
Serve Rating: 24.2
Return Rating: 11.8

Novak Djokovic

Form Index: 85.1
ELO Rating: 4780.0
Glicko2 Rating: 1891.0
Current Fatigue (minutes): 174.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 38.0
Clay: 40.1
Grass: 41.6
Serve Rating: 95.8
Return Rating: 92.3

Recent Matches

Francesco Maestrelli
✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Dusan Lajovic (2-1) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Terence Atmane (3-2) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Thiago Seyboth Wild (2-0) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Lorenzo Giustino (2-0) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Yi Zhou (0-1) hard Hong Kong 68 min

Novak Djokovic
✅ ❌ ✅ ✅ ✅

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Francesco Maestrelli
vs
0
Novak Djokovic
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

In the Round of 64 at the Australian Open, Francesco Maestrelli faces the formidable Novak Djokovic on hard courts in Australia. With a predicted probability of 78.81% for Djokovic to win compared to 21.19% for Maestrelli, the expected total number of games in this match is 37.51, indicating a potentially competitive encounter.

Match Analysis

Francesco Maestrelli, currently ranked 141, has a form index of 88.90 and an Elo rating of 565.80. His cumulative fatigue stands at 696 minutes, which may affect his performance. In contrast, Novak Djokovic, ranked 4th, boasts a solid form index of 85.13 and an impressive Elo rating of 4780.00. Djokovic's fatigue is significantly lower at 174 minutes, which could give him an advantage in stamina. The surface strength index reflects a notable difference, with Djokovic at 38.03 compared to Maestrelli's 2.47, highlighting Djokovic's superior capability on hard courts. Additionally, Djokovic's mean serve index of 95.82 far exceeds Maestrelli's 24.17, indicating he will likely dominate in serving. In their recent performances, Maestrelli has shown resilience, winning his last three matches at the Australian Open, including a tight contest against Dusan Lajovic. However, Djokovic's latest outing also ended in a decisive victory over Pedro Martinez, showcasing his ability to maintain high performance levels even after a brief dip in form during his previous Shanghai tournament.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 37.5 Most likely outcome: 37 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Francesco Maestrelli - Novak Djokovic) +8.2 Most likely spread: +8 (Francesco Maestrelli wins 8 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The expected total aces for this match is around 8.89, with both players likely contributing to this count, given the hard court surface that supports balanced serving strategies. The predicted double faults stand at approximately 6.37, which reflects the tension and pressure that may arise during this high-stakes match. With Djokovic's significantly higher serve rating, he is expected to generate more aces compared to Maestrelli, potentially influencing the overall ace count.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 8.9 Most likely: 8 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 6.4 Most likely: 6 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Djokovic's experience, superior serve and return indices, as well as lower fatigue levels, provide him a distinct edge going into this match. One key factor to watch will be Maestrelli's ability to handle Djokovic's powerful serves, which could determine the match's flow.

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