Madrid Spain Clay Masters 1000 Round of 32

Francisco Cerundolo vs Luciano Darderi: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Francisco Cerundolo

Rank: #20
63%
VS

Luciano Darderi

Rank: #22
37%
Expected Total Games: 23.3
Predicted Winner: Francisco Cerundolo

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Player Metrics

Francisco Cerundolo

Form Index: 69.6
ELO Rating: 1836.7
Glicko2 Rating: 1859.0
Current Fatigue (minutes): 100.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 62.4
Clay: 44.6
Grass: 42.2
Serve Rating: 76.9
Return Rating: 84.8

Luciano Darderi

Form Index: 43.1
ELO Rating: 1669.7
Glicko2 Rating: 1750.2
Current Fatigue (minutes): 78.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 53.6
Clay: 44.0
Grass: 42.3
Serve Rating: 97.1
Return Rating: 88.2

Recent Matches

Francisco Cerundolo

  • Last Match: vs Yannick Hanfmann (2-0) clay Madrid 100 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Alexander Zverev (1-2) clay Munich 135 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Botic van de Zandschulp (2-0) clay Munich 64 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Sumit Nagal (2-0) clay Munich 80 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Tomas Machac (0-2) clay Monte Carlo 108 min

Luciano Darderi

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

3
Francisco Cerundolo
vs
1
Luciano Darderi
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
3 - 1
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

At the Madrid Masters 1000 on clay, Round of 32 in Spain shapes up as a contrast in styles between No.20 Francisco Cerundolo and No.22 Luciano Darderi. The model favors Cerundolo to advance (62.76% win probability) over Darderi (37.24%), with a predicted total of roughly 23.3 games in the match.

Match Analysis

Cerundolo enters with the higher Elo (1836.7 vs 1669.7) and a markedly stronger form index (69.6 to 43.1), suggesting he carries better recent momentum. His surface strength index is slightly higher (44.65) than Darderi’s (43.95), and Cerundolo’s return profile (mean return index 84.77) complements his game well on clay. Fatigue is a factor: Cerundolo has logged 100 minutes already in Madrid compared with Darderi’s 78, which could influence late-match sharpness. The mean serve indices diverge decisively — Darderi’s 97.07 versus Cerundolo’s 76.88 — a difference worth noting in service-dominated moments. Looking at recent form, Cerundolo has two wins in his last three, including a straight-sets victory in Madrid over Yannick Hanfmann and competitive outings in Munich where he beat van de Zandschulp but fell to Zverev in three. Darderi’s run is mixed: a confident Madrid opening win over Juan Manuel Cerundolo and a long three-setter earlier in Munich, bookended by another long match win — his recent results show resilience but lower consistency compared to Francisco.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 23.3 Most likely outcome: 23 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Probability distribution chart for total games in Francisco Cerundolo versus Luciano Darderi. The X-axis shows possible total games values and the Y-axis shows the predicted probability percentage for each outcome.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total games in Francisco Cerundolo versus Luciano Darderi. The curve rises from 0% to 100%, showing the cumulative probability for each games total threshold.

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Francisco Cerundolo - Luciano Darderi) +4.6 Most likely spread: +5 (Francisco Cerundolo wins 5 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Probability distribution chart for games spread in Francisco Cerundolo versus Luciano Darderi. Positive values indicate Francisco Cerundolo winning more games, negative values indicate Luciano Darderi winning more games.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for games spread in Francisco Cerundolo versus Luciano Darderi. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each spread threshold.

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for this clay encounter is modest: the match’s predicted aces total sits at about 8.71. Given the surface, predicted aces are suppressed relative to faster courts, while the expected double faults total (4.54) reflects longer rallies and potential late-match pressure. Darderi’s significantly higher serve rating makes him the likelier source of a larger share of the predicted aces, while both players could contribute to the expected double faults as fatigue accumulates.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 8.7 Most likely: 8 aces
Expected Total Double Faults 4.5 Most likely: 4 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Probability distribution chart for total aces in Francisco Cerundolo versus Luciano Darderi. Higher ace counts are more likely on faster surfaces like grass.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total aces in Francisco Cerundolo versus Luciano Darderi. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each aces threshold.

Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Probability distribution chart for double faults in Francisco Cerundolo versus Luciano Darderi. Clay surface matches tend to produce more double faults due to fatigue in longer rallies.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for double faults in Francisco Cerundolo versus Luciano Darderi. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each double faults threshold.

Final Prediction

Cerundolo’s superior Elo, form and return game on clay give him the edge, despite the extra minutes on court. Watch how Darderi’s big-serve production and how Cerundolo handles those service moments — breaking serve opportunities will likely decide the outcome.

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