Estoril Portugal Clay Atp 250 Round of 32

Henrique Rocha vs Pedro Martinez: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Henrique Rocha

Rank: #122
42%
VS

Pedro Martinez

Rank: #134
58%
Expected Total Games: 22.9
Predicted Winner: Pedro Martinez

Why the Model Favors Pedro Martinez

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Recent form +9.9 Pedro Martinez
Serve & return game +3.2 Pedro Martinez
Surface fit +2.9 Henrique Rocha
Age +2.6 Henrique Rocha
Recent record by level +2.2 Henrique Rocha

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 58% for Pedro Martinez. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network — not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Also available in Claude. Query these predictions in plain language — our native connector lets Claude call our models on demand, no code.

Set it up

Ranking Trends

Henrique Rocha

  • Current #122 2026-06-29
  • 3 mo ago #118 2026-04-20
  • 6 mo ago #158 2026-01-19
  • 9 mo ago #161 2025-10-20
  • 12 mo ago #177 2025-07-21

Pedro Martinez

  • Current #134 2026-06-29
  • 3 mo ago #133 2026-04-20
  • 6 mo ago #71 2026-01-19
  • 9 mo ago #88 2025-10-20
  • 12 mo ago #62 2025-07-21

Player Metrics

Henrique Rocha

Form Index: 22.6
ELO Rating: 1451.6
Glicko2 Rating: 1467.0
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 17.5
Clay: 13.7
Grass: 4.4
Serve Rating: 95.3
Return Rating: 93.8

Pedro Martinez

Form Index: 39.4
ELO Rating: 1535.5
Glicko2 Rating: 1527.9
Current Fatigue (minutes): 166.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 8.3
Clay: 14.5
Grass: 10.6
Serve Rating: 93.9
Return Rating: 85.6

Recent Matches

Henrique Rocha
❌ ❌ ❌ ✅ ❌

Pedro Martinez
✅ ✅ ❌ ❌ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Timofey Skatov (2-0) clay Estoril 89 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs David Jorda Sanchis (2-0) clay Estoril 77 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Yannick Hanfmann (0-2) clay Gstaad 96 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Otto Virtanen (1-2) grass Wimbledon 174 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Emilio Nava (0-2) clay Roland Garros 174 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Henrique Rocha
vs
0
Pedro Martinez
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

At Estoril (Portugal), in a round-of-32 clay showdown, Pedro Martinez is the model favorite over Henrique Rocha in this 250-level event. The prediction gives Martinez a 57.83% chance to win versus 42.17% for Rocha, with an expected total of about 22.9 games in the match.

Match Analysis

The model’s edge for Martinez comes mainly from recent form (+9.9 points) and a small serve & return advantage (+3.2). That lines up with Martinez’s higher form_index (39.44 vs Rocha’s 22.57) and his two straight, straight-sets wins at this Estoril event (77 and 89 minutes). Rocha arrives on a weaker run: three straight losses (Roland Garros, Wimbledon, Umag) and no recent wins to boost confidence or momentum. On paper the serve/return picture is mixed. Martinez holds the higher Elo (1535.49 vs 1451.61) and has already logged 166 minutes on court this week, showing match sharpness despite extra minutes. Rocha is fresher in-tournament (0 minutes) and posts a notably stronger mean return index (93.76 vs Martinez’s 85.58)—a gap greater than five points that suggests Rocha can pressure Martinez’s service games. Their mean serve indexes are close (Rocha 95.25, Martinez 93.86), so there isn’t a dominant serving advantage. Surface and experience factors tilt slightly to Rocha in the model (+2.9 surface, +2.6 age, +2.2 recent record by level), giving him a narrow stylistic foothold on clay, even if recent results favor Martinez.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 22.9 Most likely outcome: 22 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Henrique Rocha - Pedro Martinez) -1.7 Most likely spread: -2 (Pedro Martinez wins 2 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for the match is low — the model’s predicted aces is 5.3 — and the expected double faults are 5.91. Clay’s slower pace and higher bounce typically reduce big-serve points, lowering predicted aces and often increasing the likelihood of double faults as rallies lengthen. Neither player posts a dramatically superior serve index, so no single player is expected to drive a much higher ace count.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 5.3 Most likely: 5 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 5.9 Most likely: 5 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

🎯 Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

37.5% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Henrique Rocha's perspective)

0-2 Most likely set score (32.5%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Martinez’s stronger recent form is the primary reason he’s favored here. Watch Rocha’s return efficiency and freshness: if he converts that return edge early, he can turn momentum despite Martinez’s form advantage.

Get Daily Tennis Predictions

Enjoyed this analysis? Subscribe to our Telegram channel and receive daily AI-driven tennis predictions directly on your phone.

Join Our Telegram Channel