Beijing China Hard Atp 500 Round of 16

Hubert Hurkacz vs Arthur Gea Prediction

Hubert Hurkacz

Rank: #41
66%
VS

Arthur Gea

Rank: #58
34%
Expected Total Games: 24.8
Predicted Winner: Hubert Hurkacz

Why the Model Favors Hubert Hurkacz

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Recent form +10.1 Hubert Hurkacz
Recent record by level +4.1 Hubert Hurkacz
Serve & return game +4.0 Hubert Hurkacz
Age +3.2 Arthur Gea
Overall strength +2.0 Hubert Hurkacz

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 66% for Hubert Hurkacz. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Ranking Trends

Hubert Hurkacz

  • Current #41 2026-09-28
  • 3 mo ago #96 2026-06-29
  • 6 mo ago #72 2026-03-30
  • 9 mo ago #72 2025-12-29
  • 12 mo ago #78 2025-09-29

Arthur Gea

  • Current #58 2026-09-28
  • 3 mo ago #136 2026-06-29
  • 6 mo ago #137 2026-03-30
  • 9 mo ago #244 2025-12-29
  • 12 mo ago #249 2025-09-29

Player Metrics

Hubert Hurkacz

Form Index: 68.8
ELO Rating: 1784.2
Glicko2 Rating: 1771.4
Current Fatigue (minutes): 117.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 30.0
Clay: 23.1
Grass: 20.7
Serve Rating: 97.4
Return Rating: 87.2

Arthur Gea

Form Index: 60.5
ELO Rating: 1775.8
Glicko2 Rating: 1817.6
Current Fatigue (minutes): 237.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 34.7
Clay: 9.0
Grass: 6.1
Serve Rating: 93.5
Return Rating: 88.4

Recent Matches

Hubert Hurkacz
✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅

Arthur Gea
✅ ✅ ✅ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Zhizhen Zhang (2-0) hard Beijing 83 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Tomas Machac (2-0) hard Beijing 77 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Rigele Te (2-0) hard Beijing 77 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Botic van de Zandschulp (2-3) hard Us Open 174 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Michael Zheng (3-2) hard Us Open 174 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Hubert Hurkacz
vs
0
Arthur Gea
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Hurkacz is favored at 66% to Gea’s 34%, with 24.8 games projected. In this Round of 16 match in Beijing, Hurkacz has the forecast advantage, though Gea’s recent results make him a credible threat.

Match Analysis

Hurkacz’s recent wins over Denis Shapovalov and Learner Tien extend a three-match winning run that also includes Lloyd Harris. Gea has also won three in a row, all in straight sets in Beijing, including victories over Tomas Machac and Zhizhen Zhang. Hurkacz is ranked 41st, compared with Gea at 58th, and brings the stronger serve. Gea’s return is marginally sharper, giving him a way to challenge Hurkacz’s service games. There is also a notable workload gap: Hurkacz has spent 117 minutes on court in Beijing, against Gea’s 237.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 24.8 Most likely outcome: 24 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Hubert Hurkacz - Arthur Gea) +2.3 Most likely spread: +2 (Hubert Hurkacz wins 2 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

Hurkacz is projected to hit 10.5 aces and 2.5 double faults, while Gea is projected for 5.4 aces and 3.8 double faults. Hurkacz’s stronger serving profile supports the larger ace total, while Gea’s higher expected double-fault count points to less consistency on serve.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 15.2 Most likely: 13 aces Per player: Hubert Hurkacz 10.5 + Arthur Gea 5.4
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 6.3 Most likely: 5 double faults Per player: Hubert Hurkacz 2.5 + Arthur Gea 3.8

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

🎯 Aces by Player

Hubert Hurkacz

Expected 10.5 aces

Arthur Gea

Expected 5.4 aces

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

❌ Double Faults by Player

Hubert Hurkacz

Expected 2.5 double faults

Arthur Gea

Expected 3.8 double faults

Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

49.3% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Hubert Hurkacz's perspective)

2-0 Most likely set score (40.6%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Gea’s sharper return could make the difference if he can put sustained pressure on Hurkacz’s serve. His run of straight-set wins supports that possibility, though the extra time he has spent on court may work against him.

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