Buenos Aires Argentina Clay Atp 250 Round of 32

Ignacio Buse vs Francesco Passaro: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Ignacio Buse

Rank: #98
32%
VS

Francesco Passaro

Rank: #155
68%
Expected Total Games: 23.2
Predicted Winner: Francesco Passaro

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Ranking Trends

Ignacio Buse

  • Current #98 2026-02-02
  • 3 mo ago #110 2025-11-10
  • 6 mo ago #140 2025-08-04
  • 9 mo ago #171 2025-05-05
  • 12 mo ago #234 2025-02-10

Francesco Passaro

  • Current #155 2026-02-02
  • 3 mo ago #128 2025-11-10
  • 6 mo ago #118 2025-08-04
  • 9 mo ago #101 2025-05-05
  • 12 mo ago #92 2025-02-10

Player Metrics

Ignacio Buse

Form Index: 50.5
ELO Rating: 627.0
Glicko2 Rating: 1524.3
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 3.1
Clay: 4.7
Grass: 4.3
Serve Rating: 48.6
Return Rating: 53.7

Francesco Passaro

Form Index: 59.3
ELO Rating: 437.3
Glicko2 Rating: 1562.1
Current Fatigue (minutes): 233.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 5.0
Clay: 5.2
Grass: 3.5
Serve Rating: 96.3
Return Rating: 89.4

Recent Matches

Ignacio Buse
❌ ❌ ✅ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Arthur Fery (0-2) hard Stockholm 67 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Ben Shelton (0-3) hard Us Open 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Kimmer Coppejans (2-0) hard Us Open 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Rei Sakamoto (2-1) hard Us Open 174 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Lukas Neumayer (2-1) hard Us Open 174 min

Francesco Passaro
✅ ✅ ❌ ✅ ❌

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Ignacio Buse
vs
0
Francesco Passaro
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

This round-of-32 match in Buenos Aires, Argentina is played on clay at a 250-level event. Francesco Passaro is the model favorite, with a 67.98% chance to win against Ignacio Buse (32.02%). The model projects a relatively short clay contest, with an expected total of about 23.23 games.

Match Analysis

Ignacio Buse arrives ranked 98 with a form index of 50.45 and an Elo of 627.0; he shows no accumulated fatigue in this tournament and posts a surface strength index of 4.75. Francesco Passaro is ranked 155 but has a higher form index (59.31) despite a lower Elo (437.30) and significant tournament fatigue (233 minutes on court); his surface strength index is 5.22. There is a large gap in serving and returning metrics: Passaro’s mean serve index (96.27) exceeds Buse’s (48.56) by nearly 48 points, and his mean return index (89.45) is about 35.7 points higher than Buse’s (53.70), both differences well above 5 points and notable for match dynamics. Recent results diverge: Buse has one win and two defeats in his last three outings (a win over Kimmer Coppejans, then losses to Ben Shelton and Arthur Fery, all on hard courts except the Coppejans match), indicating mixed form. Passaro has built momentum on clay in Buenos Aires with consecutive wins over Nicolas Kicker and Marco Cecchinato before this match, plus a prior loss at the Australian Open; his two clay victories in the event are directly relevant to conditions here.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 23.2 Most likely outcome: 23 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Ignacio Buse - Francesco Passaro) -0.5 Most likely spread: -1 (Francesco Passaro wins 1 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction is 6.72 for the match and the double faults prediction is 4.11 (expected double faults). On clay, slower speed and higher bounce generally suppress aces and can raise pressure-related errors; the surface context supports a modest predicted aces total and a non-negligible expected double faults count. Given Passaro’s substantially higher serve index, the predicted aces figure is likely to be concentrated on his serve.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 6.7 Most likely: 6 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 4.1 Most likely: 4 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Passaro’s superior form index and the pronounced serve/return differentials give him the edge despite his accumulated minutes on court, which modestly raise the risk of service errors. The key factor to watch is how Passaro’s serve holds up under fatigue and whether Buse can exploit any short points on return.

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