Ignacio Buse vs Matteo Berrettini: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Buse arrives ranked 59 with a form index of 49.63 and an Elo of 1596.13; his surface strength is modest (40.06) and he carries no tournament fatigue. Berrettini, despite a lower rank of 91, shows a higher Elo (1650.72) and a nearly identical form index (49.24). Both players have similar clay profiles (surface strength 41.39 for Berrettini), but the biggest disparity lies in serving: Berrettini’s mean serve index (99.59) dwarfs Buse’s (66.88) by over 30 points, and his mean return index is also substantially higher (88.18 vs 71.43). Those gaps suggest Berrettini will dictate many service games and shorten points when firing his big serve. Recent results are comparable: Buse won two matches before a three-set loss in his most recent outing in Miami, showing resilience but mixed outcomes on hard courts. Berrettini likewise collected a couple of straight-set wins before a defeat in his last match. Neither carries fatigue into Marrakech, so current freshness won’t be a differentiator; the match will hinge on Berrettini’s firepower versus Buse’s steadier baseline return game.