Jaime Faria vs Stan Wawrinka: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

The model’s edge for Faria is driven most strongly by Age (9.1 percentage points) and is reinforced by surface fit and overall strength. Supporting metrics show Faria at No. 92 with an Elo of 1767.6 and a form index of 59.49, compared with Wawrinka at No. 109, Elo 1539.1 and a form index of 28.82. Fatigue is equal (0 minutes) so freshness shouldn’t be a factor. On clay Faria’s surface strength index (25.57) is substantially higher than Wawrinka’s (6.93), which aligns with the +3.6 percentage points the model assigns to surface fit. The model does give a modest nod to Wawrinka on serve & return (5.7 p.p.) and recent record by level (3.2 p.p.), but the raw indices tell a mixed story. Mean serve indices are nearly identical (Faria 95.09 vs Wawrinka 94.78), so there’s no large serving gap; by contrast Faria’s mean return index is meaningfully higher (92.28 vs 86.41), a difference greater than 5 points that on clay can translate into more break opportunities. Recent form: Faria won two of his last three matches (both at Wimbledon earlier rounds) and lost his most recent match to Zizou Bergs, while Wawrinka has struggled in his last three outings, recording losses in Geneva, Roland Garros and Wimbledon.