Australian Open Australia Hard Grand Slam Round of 128

Jakub Mensik vs Pablo Carreno Busta: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Jakub Mensik

Rank: #18
74%
VS

Pablo Carreno Busta

Rank: #92
26%
Expected Total Games: 38.2
Predicted Winner: Jakub Mensik

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Player Metrics

Jakub Mensik

Form Index: 67.1
ELO Rating: 2130.3
Glicko2 Rating: 1621.4
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 15.9
Clay: 15.4
Grass: 15.7
Serve Rating: 66.7
Return Rating: 51.2

Pablo Carreno Busta

Form Index: 35.3
ELO Rating: 677.3
Glicko2 Rating: 1533.5
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 6.2
Clay: 6.0
Grass: 5.7
Serve Rating: 97.0
Return Rating: 92.2

Recent Matches

Jakub Mensik

  • Last Match: vs Fabian Marozsan (2-1) hard Auckland 127 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard (2-0) hard Auckland 65 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Hamad Medjedovic (2-1) hard Auckland 134 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Henry Bernet (2-1) hard Basel 149 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Jesper de Jong (1-2) hard Shanghai 148 min

Pablo Carreno Busta

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

1
Jakub Mensik
vs
0
Pablo Carreno Busta
Hard
1 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

The match between Jakub Mensik and Pablo Carreno Busta in the Round of 128 at the Australian Open 2026 is set to take place on hard courts. Given Mensik's strong form and higher ranking, he is predicted to win with a probability of 73.56%, while Carreno Busta has a 26.44% chance of victory. The expected total number of games in this match is approximately 38.23.

Match Analysis

Jakub Mensik currently holds a ranking of 18, showcasing a solid form index of 67.07, indicating good recent performances. His Elo rating of 2130 and a surface strength index of 15.93 suggest he is well-equipped for hard courts. Mensik's mean serve index of 66.72 reflects his capability to deliver effective serves, while his mean return index of 51.24 indicates he can effectively handle his opponent's serves. In contrast, Pablo Carreno Busta ranks 92, with a significantly lower form index of 35.34 and a much lower Elo rating of 677.27. His surface strength index of 6.22 and a mean serve index of 97.00 place him as a strong server, yet his mean return index of 92.19 suggests he has a robust return game. The difference in their serve indices (over 5 points) may give Mensik a slight advantage in service games. Over their last three matches, Mensik has performed well, winning two out of three matches, including a recent victory against Fabian Marozsan. His only loss came after a competitive encounter, illustrating his resilience. Conversely, Carreno Busta has struggled, losing two of his last three matches and showing inconsistency, particularly in his last match against Vit Kopriva.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 38.2 Most likely outcome: 38 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Probability distribution chart for total games in Jakub Mensik versus Pablo Carreno Busta. The X-axis shows possible total games values and the Y-axis shows the predicted probability percentage for each outcome.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total games in Jakub Mensik versus Pablo Carreno Busta. The curve rises from 0% to 100%, showing the cumulative probability for each games total threshold.

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Jakub Mensik - Pablo Carreno Busta) -0.5 Most likely spread: -1 (Pablo Carreno Busta wins 1 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Probability distribution chart for games spread in Jakub Mensik versus Pablo Carreno Busta. Positive values indicate Jakub Mensik winning more games, negative values indicate Pablo Carreno Busta winning more games.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for games spread in Jakub Mensik versus Pablo Carreno Busta. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each spread threshold.

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The expected aces for this match stand at around 24.44, which aligns with the characteristics of hard court surfaces that tend to favor both powerful servers and strong returners. The predicted double faults, estimated at 6.58, reflect a common occurrence in high-stakes matches. Given Carreno Busta's superior serve rating, it is likely he might contribute more to the ace count, but Mensik's overall form could balance the dynamics.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 24.4 Most likely: 24 aces
Expected Total Double Faults 6.6 Most likely: 6 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Probability distribution chart for total aces in Jakub Mensik versus Pablo Carreno Busta. Higher ace counts are more likely on faster surfaces like grass.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total aces in Jakub Mensik versus Pablo Carreno Busta. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each aces threshold.

Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Probability distribution chart for double faults in Jakub Mensik versus Pablo Carreno Busta. Clay surface matches tend to produce more double faults due to fatigue in longer rallies.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for double faults in Jakub Mensik versus Pablo Carreno Busta. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each double faults threshold.

Final Prediction

Jakub Mensik has a marked edge due to his superior ranking, form, and recent performances. A key factor to watch will be Mensik's ability to maintain consistency in service games while capitalizing on Carreno Busta's current struggles.

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