Doha Qatar Hard Atp 500 Round of 16

Jakub Mensik vs Zhizhen Zhang: AI Prediction | Games, Aces & Double Faults

Jakub Mensik

Rank: #16
69%
VS

Zhizhen Zhang

Rank: #365
31%
Expected Total Games: 22.8
Predicted Winner: Jakub Mensik

Ranking Trends

Jakub Mensik

  • Current Rank: #16 (2026-02-09)
  • 3 Months Ago: #19 (2025-11-17)
  • 6 Months Ago: #16 (2025-08-18)
  • 9 Months Ago: #19 (2025-05-19)
  • 12 Months Ago: #45 (2025-02-17)

Zhizhen Zhang

  • Current Rank: #365 (2026-02-09)
  • 3 Months Ago: #411 (2025-11-17)
  • 6 Months Ago: #190 (2025-08-18)
  • 9 Months Ago: #81 (2025-05-19)
  • 12 Months Ago: #49 (2025-02-17)

Player Metrics

Jakub Mensik

Form Index: 78.0
ELO Rating: 2131.0
Glicko2 Rating: 1639.1
Current Fatigue (minutes): 138.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 15.9
Clay: 15.5
Grass: 16.4
Serve Rating: 71.5
Return Rating: 50.1

Zhizhen Zhang

Form Index: 27.9
ELO Rating: 128.5
Glicko2 Rating: 1614.4
Current Fatigue (minutes): 74.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 2.8
Clay: 1.0
Grass: 0.8
Serve Rating: 98.3
Return Rating: 85.9

Recent Matches

Jakub Mensik
✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Jan Choinski (2-1) hard Doha 138 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Ethan Quinn (3-0) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Rafael Jodar (3-0) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Pablo Carreno Busta (3-2) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Sebastian Baez (2-0) hard Auckland 82 min

Zhizhen Zhang
✅ ❌ ❌ ❌ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Roberto Carballes Baena (2-0) hard Doha 74 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Francisco Cerundolo (0-3) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Sebastian Baez (1-2) hard Shanghai 120 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Terence Atmane (0-2) hard Beijing 71 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Dalibor Svrcina (0-2) hard Hangzhou 92 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Jakub Mensik
vs
0
Zhizhen Zhang
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Doha, Qatar — Round of 16 on hard courts at an ATP 500 event. Jakub Mensik is the clear favorite in this matchup: the model projects Mensik to win with a 68.79% probability versus 31.21% for Zhizhen Zhang, and expects a relatively short contest of about 22.83 total games.

Match Analysis

Mensik enters this match as world No. 16 with a strong form index (77.95) and a high Elo rating (2,130.97). He carries 138 minutes of cumulative court time in the tournament so far and posts a surface strength index of 15.93 and a mean serve index of 71.45. Zhang is ranked 365 with a much lower form index (27.94) and a far lower Elo (128.47), with 74 minutes on court this week and a surface strength index of 2.76. There is a significant gap in serve and return profiles: Zhang’s mean serve index (98.33) exceeds Mensik’s by roughly 26.9 points, and Zhang’s mean return index (85.93) exceeds Mensik’s by about 35.9 points — both differences are material and likely to shape key phases of the match. Recent form underlines the contrast. Mensik has won his last three matches (two long wins at the Australian Open and a 138-minute victory in Doha), demonstrating sustained match fitness despite heavier minutes. Zhang won his most recent match in Doha in 74 minutes but had two earlier losses — a straight-sets defeat by Francisco Cerundolo and a three-set loss to Sebastian Baez — indicating more variable recent results.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 22.8 Most likely outcome: 22 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for the match is 10.57 total aces and an expected double faults count of 4.47. On hard courts, which balance speed and bounce, the predicted aces reflect a moderate tally; the predicted aces and predicted double faults align with a match where service holds could be important. Given Zhang’s substantially higher serve rating, expect him to contribute the bulk of the aces, while both players may register a few double faults (expected double faults ~4.47).
🎯
Expected Total Aces 10.6 Most likely: 10 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 4.5 Most likely: 4 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Mensik’s superior ranking, form and Elo provide the principal edge, despite Zhang’s standout serve and return indices. The key factor to watch is how Mensik handles Zhang’s serve: if he can neutralize those service points, Mensik’s overall consistency should decide the match.

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