Rotterdam Netherlands Hard Atp 500 Round of 32

Hugo Grenier vs Jan-Lennard Struff: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Hugo Grenier

Rank: #189
51%
VS

Jan-Lennard Struff

Rank: #84
49%
Expected Total Games: 24.1
Predicted Winner: Hugo Grenier

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Ranking Trends

Hugo Grenier

  • Current #189 2026-02-02
  • 3 mo ago #177 2025-11-10
  • 6 mo ago #192 2025-08-04
  • 9 mo ago #172 2025-05-05
  • 12 mo ago #202 2025-02-10

Jan-Lennard Struff

  • Current #84 2026-02-02
  • 3 mo ago #100 2025-11-10
  • 6 mo ago #143 2025-08-04
  • 9 mo ago #87 2025-05-05
  • 12 mo ago #46 2025-02-10

Player Metrics

Hugo Grenier

Form Index: 53.1
ELO Rating: 374.4
Glicko2 Rating: 1545.6
Current Fatigue (minutes): 249.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 2.3
Clay: 1.8
Grass: 1.9
Serve Rating: 62.2
Return Rating: 64.3

Jan-Lennard Struff

Form Index: 24.5
ELO Rating: 649.0
Glicko2 Rating: 1615.7
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 8.0
Clay: 6.1
Grass: 7.8
Serve Rating: 97.1
Return Rating: 89.4

Recent Matches

Hugo Grenier
✅ ✅ ❌ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Thijs Boogaard (2-1) hard Rotterdam 157 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Jan Choinski (2-0) hard Rotterdam 92 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Andrea Vavassori (0-2) hard Montpellier 96 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Geoffrey Blancaneaux (2-1) hard Montpellier 144 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Mackenzie McDonald (0-2) hard Australian Open 174 min

Jan-Lennard Struff
❌ ❌ ✅ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Vit Kopriva (2-3) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Emilio Nava (1-2) hard Auckland 101 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Anton Shepp (2-0) hard Auckland 74 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Botic van de Zandschulp (1-2) hard Hong Kong 94 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Nishesh Basavareddy (2-0) hard Hong Kong 85 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Hugo Grenier
vs
1
Jan-Lennard Struff
Hard
0 - 1
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Rotterdam, Netherlands — round of 32 on indoor hard courts at an ATP 500 event. The model gives Hugo Grenier a narrow edge over Jan-Lennard Struff: Grenier 51.27% vs Struff 48.73%, with a predicted total of about 24.14 games in the match. This projects a tight, likely two-set encounter with few breaks separating the players.

Match Analysis

Grenier arrives ranked 189 with a form index of 53.1 and an Elo of 374.4. He has accumulated 249 minutes on court in this event, suggesting some tournament fatigue. His surface strength index is modest (2.33) but his mean return index (64.34) slightly outpaces his mean serve index (62.18). Struff is ranked 84 with a lower form index (24.53) but a much higher Elo (649.0). He shows a stronger surface strength (7.96) and a very high mean serve index (97.10) alongside a top-level mean return index (89.44). The difference in mean serve index (~35 points) and mean return index (~25 points) is substantial and will be a defining tactical axis in the match. Over the last three matches Grenier is 2-1: wins at Rotterdam versus Jan Choinski and Thijs Boogaard (including a long 157-minute match), and a loss in Montpellier to Andrea Vavassori. Struff is 1-2 across his most recent three: an opening win in Auckland, followed by losses to Emilio Nava and a five-set loss at the Australian Open to Vit Kopriva. Recent form suggests Grenier has momentum at this event while Struff’s results show variability despite his higher baseline rankings and power numbers.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 24.1 Most likely outcome: 24 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Hugo Grenier - Jan-Lennard Struff) -0.6 Most likely spread: -1 (Jan-Lennard Struff wins 1 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for the match is about 10.06 total, and the predicted double faults sit near 5.63. On indoor hard courts, expected aces are moderate — harder courts reward big servers more than clay but less than grass. Given Struff’s significantly higher serve rating, he is likely to contribute a disproportionate share of the predicted aces, while Grenier’s return quality could temper that count. Expected double faults remain modest but could rise if either player presses aggressively on serve.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 10.1 Most likely: 10 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 5.6 Most likely: 5 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Grenier’s edge comes from recent match wins at Rotterdam and a stronger recent return profile, offsetting Struff’s superior serve power and higher Elo. Key factor to watch: how effectively Grenier can neutralize Struff’s serve early in rallies — that will likely determine whether breaks unfold and decide this close matchup.

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