Beijing China Hard Atp 500 Semifinals

Jannik Sinner vs Alex de Minaur Prediction

Jannik Sinner

Rank: #2
73%
VS

Alex de Minaur

Rank: #8
27%
Predicted Games Played: 21.0
Predicted Winner: Jannik Sinner

Ranking Trends

Jannik Sinner

  • Current Rank: #2 (2025-09-22)
  • 3 Months Ago: #1 (2025-06-23)
  • 6 Months Ago: #1 (2025-03-17)
  • 9 Months Ago: #1 (2024-12-23)
  • 12 Months Ago: #1 (2024-09-30)

Alex de Minaur

  • Current Rank: #8 (2025-09-22)
  • 3 Months Ago: #11 (2025-06-23)
  • 6 Months Ago: #11 (2025-03-17)
  • 9 Months Ago: #9 (2024-12-23)
  • 12 Months Ago: #11 (2024-09-30)

Player Metrics

Jannik Sinner

Form Index: 77.4
ELO Rating: 11191.3
Glicko2 Rating: 2169.5
Current Fatigue (minutes): 302.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 97.8
Clay: 97.8
Grass: 98.9
Serve Rating: 97.5
Return Rating: 89.3

Alex de Minaur

Form Index: 66.9
ELO Rating: 2462.0
Glicko2 Rating: 1790.3
Current Fatigue (minutes): 223.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 19.3
Clay: 27.1
Grass: 28.5
Serve Rating: 94.3
Return Rating: 88.1

Recent Matches

Jannik Sinner
✅ ✅ ✅ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Fabian Marozsan (2-0) hard Beijing 80 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Terence Atmane (2-1) hard Beijing 141 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Marin Cilic (2-0) hard Beijing 81 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Carlos Alcaraz (1-3) hard Us Open 174 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Felix Auger-Aliassime (3-1) hard Us Open 174 min

Alex de Minaur
✅ ✅ ❌ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Arthur Rinderknech (2-1) hard Beijing 136 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Yunchaokete Bu (2-0) hard Beijing 87 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Felix Auger-Aliassime (1-3) hard Us Open 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Daniel Altmaier (3-1) hard Us Open 174 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Shintaro Mochizuki (3-0) hard Us Open 174 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

2
Jannik Sinner
vs
0
Alex de Minaur
Hard
2 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

In the semifinals of the Beijing ATP 500 tournament, Jannik Sinner is set to face Alex de Minaur on hard courts. With a strong probability of winning at 73.45%, Sinner is favored over de Minaur, who has a win probability of 26.55%. The predicted total number of games played in this encounter is estimated to be around 21.

Match Analysis

Jannik Sinner, currently ranked 2nd, boasts a form index of 77.41 and an Elo rating of 11191.28. His cumulative fatigue stands at 302 minutes, reflecting a tough tournament run. Sinner's surface strength index is impressive at 97.77, indicating his proficiency on hard courts. Notably, he has a mean serve index of 97.51 and a mean return index of 89.34, showcasing a significant advantage in serve effectiveness over de Minaur, whose mean serve index is 94.33. The difference in their serve indices exceeds 5 points, which could be a decisive factor in the match. Additionally, Sinner's return index surpasses de Minaur's by over 1 point, further solidifying his edge. On the other hand, Alex de Minaur, ranked 8th, has a form index of 66.91, along with an Elo rating of 2462.03. He has accumulated 223 minutes of fatigue in the tournament. De Minaur's surface strength index of 19.32 indicates challenges on hard courts, which could hinder his performance. In recent matches, Sinner has demonstrated consistency by winning all of his last three encounters in straight sets, while de Minaur's performances have been mixed, including a loss at the US Open against Felix Auger-Aliassime.

Final Prediction

Jannik Sinner's superior ranking, form, serve, and return indices provide him with a clear advantage heading into this semifinal match. A critical factor to watch will be Sinner's ability to leverage his powerful serve against de Minaur's return game, as this could dictate the flow of the match and ultimately determine the outcome.