Jenson Brooksby vs Ignacio Buse: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

The model’s edge for Brooksby comes mainly from his serve & return profile and his better fit to grass; recent form at this level also nudges the projection toward him. Brooksby’s mean return index (94.46) is meaningfully higher than Buse’s (88.55), which underpins the “serve & return game” advantage noted by the model. Both players have similar mean serve indices (95.93 vs 95.54), so the return gap is the more relevant differential on quick grass. On surface fit Brooksby again has the advantage: his surface strength index is 18.96 versus Buse’s 10.92, a clear gap in the model’s grass-specific metric. Looking at background numbers, Buse is the higher-ranked and higher-rated player on paper (rank 34, Elo 1728.5) compared with Brooksby (rank 81, Elo 1532.7). Buse’s form index is also stronger (57.77 to Brooksby’s 35.45), which is why the model still gives some weight to overall strength in his favor. Fatigue is equal in the dataset (174 minutes each). Over their last three matches on grass, Brooksby beat Aleksandar Vukic twice and lost to Ugo Humbert in Eastbourne, while Buse’s recent run includes a big win over Emilio Nava and a prior victory over Stefanos Tsitsipas, with a loss to Vit Kopriva mixed in.