Gstaad Switzerland Clay Atp 250 Round of 32

Jerome Kym vs Dylan Dietrich: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Jerome Kym

Rank: #196
65%
VS

Dylan Dietrich

Rank: #1000
35%
Expected Total Games: 23.9
Predicted Winner: Jerome Kym

Why the Model Favors Jerome Kym

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Overall strength +9.9 Jerome Kym
Serve & return game +5.0 Jerome Kym
Recent record by level +5.0 Jerome Kym
Recent form +4.4 Dylan Dietrich
Overall record & opposition quality +2.4 Dylan Dietrich

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 65% for Jerome Kym. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network — not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Player Metrics

Jerome Kym

Form Index: 46.8
ELO Rating: 1524.1
Glicko2 Rating: 1525.3
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 23.1
Clay: 5.7
Grass: 8.5
Serve Rating: 95.8
Return Rating: 92.2

Dylan Dietrich

Form Index: 40.4
ELO Rating: 1539.5
Glicko2 Rating: 1832.0
Current Fatigue (minutes): 221.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 10.0
Clay: 12.4
Grass: 4.5
Serve Rating: 98.1
Return Rating: 86.8

Recent Matches

Jerome Kym

  • Last Match: vs Roman Safiullin (2-3) grass Wimbledon 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs August Holmgren (2-0) grass Wimbledon 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Gonzalo Bueno (2-1) grass Wimbledon 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Tom Gentzsch (0-2) clay Roland Garros 174 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Dane Sweeny (0-2) hard Australian Open 174 min

Dylan Dietrich

  • Last Match: vs Thiago Monteiro (2-1) clay Gstaad 134 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Otto Virtanen (2-0) clay Gstaad 87 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs None (0-0) None None 0 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs None (0-0) None None 0 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs None (0-0) None None 0 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Jerome Kym
vs
0
Dylan Dietrich
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

At Gstaad in Switzerland, Round of 32 on clay at an ATP 250-level event, Jerome Kym is predicted to beat Dylan Dietrich. The model gives Kym a 65.21% chance to win versus 34.79% for Dietrich, with a projected total of about 23.9 games in the match.

Match Analysis

The model’s edge for Kym comes mainly from overall strength (+9.9 percentage points) and a combined serve & return advantage (+5.0 points), with recent record at level also pushing toward him (+5.0). Kym sits well above Dietrich in ranking (196 vs 1000) and posts a higher form index (46.8 to 40.4). His Elo is 1524 versus Dietrich’s 1539, so Elo is not the differentiator; rather Kym’s consistency and recent results at tour-level events give him the margin. Dietrich’s recent form (which the model credits +4.4 points toward him) is visible in two straight wins at Gstaad, including a victory over Thiago Monteiro, and his slightly better clay surface strength index (12.37 to Kym’s 5.73) should not be overlooked. Fatigue and match readiness also split the pair: Kym arrives with zero minutes logged in the tournament, while Dietrich has accrued 221 minutes, which may matter on slow clay. On serve and return metrics, Kym’s mean return index (92.18) is notably higher than Dietrich’s (86.75) — a difference greater than five points — signalling Kym’s greater ability to pressure serve games. Serve indices are comparable (95.8 vs 98.1), so neither should be expected to dominate outright on serve. Over their last three matches, Kym has two recent wins and a five-set loss at Wimbledon, showing resilience in long matches; Dietrich has back-to-back wins on clay in Gstaad after limited prior activity.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 23.9 Most likely outcome: 23 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Probability distribution chart for total games in Jerome Kym versus Dylan Dietrich. The X-axis shows possible total games values and the Y-axis shows the predicted probability percentage for each outcome.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total games in Jerome Kym versus Dylan Dietrich. The curve rises from 0% to 100%, showing the cumulative probability for each games total threshold.

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Jerome Kym - Dylan Dietrich) +2.0 Most likely spread: +2 (Jerome Kym wins 2 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Probability distribution chart for games spread in Jerome Kym versus Dylan Dietrich. Positive values indicate Jerome Kym winning more games, negative values indicate Dylan Dietrich winning more games.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for games spread in Jerome Kym versus Dylan Dietrich. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each spread threshold.

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for the match is modest: the predicted aces total is 11.05, reflecting clay’s tendency to suppress service winners. The predicted double faults total is 5.33; with Dietrich’s 221 minutes of fatigue and long match play already in the event, expected double faults could skew toward him. Kym’s strong return game further reduces the likelihood of easy service holds and lowers the predicted ace count.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 11.1 Most likely: 11 aces
Expected Total Double Faults 5.3 Most likely: 5 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Probability distribution chart for total aces in Jerome Kym versus Dylan Dietrich. Higher ace counts are more likely on faster surfaces like grass.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total aces in Jerome Kym versus Dylan Dietrich. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each aces threshold.

Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Probability distribution chart for double faults in Jerome Kym versus Dylan Dietrich. Clay surface matches tend to produce more double faults due to fatigue in longer rallies.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for double faults in Jerome Kym versus Dylan Dietrich. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each double faults threshold.

🎯 Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

39.1% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Jerome Kym's perspective)

2-0 Most likely set score (32.2%)
Probability distribution of the final set score from Jerome Kym's perspective. Format: BO3.

Final Prediction

Kym’s projected edge is driven primarily by overall strength and his serve/return profile, with the standout single factor being overall strength. The key element to watch is Kym’s return pressure against Dietrich’s serving rhythm, especially if Dietrich shows signs of fatigue on clay.

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