Bastad Sweden Clay Atp 250 Quarterfinals

Jesper de Jong vs Tallon Griekspoor Prediction

Jesper de Jong

Rank: #106
36%
VS

Tallon Griekspoor

Rank: #29
64%
Predicted Games Played: 23.0
Predicted Winner: Tallon Griekspoor

Ranking Trends

Jesper de Jong

  • Current Rank: #106 (2025-06-30)
  • 3 Months Ago: #94 (2025-04-14)
  • 6 Months Ago: #111 (2025-01-13)
  • 9 Months Ago: #108 (2024-10-14)
  • 12 Months Ago: #114 (2024-07-15)

Tallon Griekspoor

  • Current Rank: #29 (2025-06-30)
  • 3 Months Ago: #37 (2025-04-14)
  • 6 Months Ago: #40 (2025-01-13)
  • 9 Months Ago: #37 (2024-10-14)
  • 12 Months Ago: #27 (2024-07-15)

Player Metrics

Jesper de Jong

Form Index: 52.6
ELO Rating: 734.6
Glicko2 Rating: 1564.7
Current Fatigue (minutes): 229.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 5.9
Clay: 7.0
Grass: 4.2
Serve Rating: 96.9
Return Rating: 86.8

Tallon Griekspoor

Form Index: 53.6
ELO Rating: 1455.9
Glicko2 Rating: 1704.9
Current Fatigue (minutes): 131.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 15.2
Clay: 11.0
Grass: 10.1
Serve Rating: 96.5
Return Rating: 85.0

Recent Matches

Jesper de Jong
✅ ✅ ❌ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Vit Kopriva (2-0) clay Bastad 147 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs William Rejchtman Vinciguerra (2-0) clay Bastad 82 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Miomir Kecmanovic (1-3) grass Wimbledon 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Christopher Eubanks (3-2) grass Wimbledon 174 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Bernard Tomic (1-2) grass Mallorca 116 min

Tallon Griekspoor
✅ ❌ ✅ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Andrea Pellegrino (2-1) clay Bastad 131 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Jenson Brooksby (0-3) grass Wimbledon 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Corentin Moutet (2-0) grass Mallorca 116 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Felix Auger-Aliassime (2-0) grass Mallorca 90 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Gabriel Diallo (2-0) grass Mallorca 88 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

1
Jesper de Jong
vs
0
Tallon Griekspoor
Hard
1 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

In the quarterfinals of the ATP 250 tournament in Bastad, Sweden, Jesper de Jong faces Tallon Griekspoor on clay. The matchup sees Griekspoor as the favored player, holding a probability of winning at 64.09%, while de Jong stands at 35.91%. The predicted total number of games played in this encounter is 23.0.

Match Analysis

Jesper de Jong, currently ranked 106, has a form index of 52.57 and an Elo rating of 734.56. His cumulative fatigue is notably high at 229 minutes, which could impact his performance. His surface strength index is 7.00, indicating limited proficiency on clay. In contrast, Tallon Griekspoor sits at a rank of 29, with a slightly better form index of 53.58 and a significantly higher Elo rating of 1455.92. Griekspoor's fatigue is lower at 131 minutes, and he boasts a superior surface strength index of 10.96. When examining their serving capabilities, de Jong's mean serve index is 96.93, slightly surpassing Griekspoor's 96.52, indicating a competitive serve for both. However, de Jong's mean return index of 86.85 is better than Griekspoor's 84.96, suggesting he may have an advantage in returning serves. Recent performances reflect de Jong's strong clay form, winning two matches in Bastad without dropping a set. Meanwhile, Griekspoor has won one match in the tournament but suffered an earlier defeat at Wimbledon.

Final Prediction

Griekspoor's higher rank and better overall statistics, combined with lower fatigue levels, give him a tangible edge in this matchup. A critical factor to watch will be how well de Jong can leverage his superior return game against Griekspoor's serve, which could determine the flow of the match.