Australian Open Australia Hard Grand Slam Round of 128

Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Jordan Thompson: AI Prediction | Games, Aces & Double Faults

Juan Manuel Cerundolo

Rank: #85
44%
VS

Jordan Thompson

Rank: #113
56%
Expected Total Games: 37.9
Predicted Winner: Jordan Thompson

Ranking Trends

Juan Manuel Cerundolo

  • Current Rank: #85 (2026-01-05)
  • 3 Months Ago: #86 (2025-10-20)
  • 6 Months Ago: #81 (2025-07-21)
  • 9 Months Ago: #126 (2025-04-21)
  • 12 Months Ago: #139 (2025-01-13)

Jordan Thompson

  • Current Rank: #113 (2026-01-05)
  • 3 Months Ago: #79 (2025-10-20)
  • 6 Months Ago: #36 (2025-07-21)
  • 9 Months Ago: #40 (2025-04-21)
  • 12 Months Ago: #27 (2025-01-13)

Player Metrics

Juan Manuel Cerundolo

Form Index: 30.4
ELO Rating: 691.7
Glicko2 Rating: 1542.3
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 2.1
Clay: 7.4
Grass: 4.9
Serve Rating: 64.5
Return Rating: 85.1

Jordan Thompson

Form Index: 31.3
ELO Rating: 536.0
Glicko2 Rating: 1669.5
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 17.9
Clay: 12.6
Grass: 16.1
Serve Rating: 97.9
Return Rating: 93.4

Recent Matches

Juan Manuel Cerundolo
❌ ✅ ❌ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Eliot Spizzirri (0-2) hard Auckland 87 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Shintaro Mochizuki (2-1) hard Auckland 168 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Yunchaokete Bu (1-2) hard Shanghai 172 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Sho Shimabukuro (0-2) hard Tokio 80 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Rio Noguchi (2-0) hard Tokio 66 min

Jordan Thompson
❌ ✅ ❌ ❌ ❌

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Ugo Humbert (0-2) hard Shanghai 106 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs August Holmgren (2-1) hard Shanghai 128 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Brandon Nakashima (1-2) hard Tokio 184 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Alejandro Tabilo (0-2) hard Chengdu 79 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Adrian Mannarino (1-3) hard Us Open 174 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Juan Manuel Cerundolo
vs
0
Jordan Thompson
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

The upcoming match between Juan Manuel Cerundolo and Jordan Thompson at the Australian Open marks an intriguing clash in the Round of 128 on hard courts. With the tournament being a Grand Slam event, both players will be seeking to make a significant impact. Jordan Thompson is predicted to win this encounter with a probability of 55.84%, while Juan Manuel Cerundolo has a 44.16% chance of success. The anticipated total number of games is approximately 37.85, indicating a potentially competitive match.

Match Analysis

Juan Manuel Cerundolo is currently ranked 85, with a form index of 30.36 and an Elo rating of 691.69. He has a surface strength index of 2.11, suggesting he has struggled on hard courts in recent performances. In contrast, Jordan Thompson, ranked 113, possesses a form index of 31.34 and a lower Elo rating of 536. However, Thompson’s mean serve index is significantly higher at 97.91 compared to Cerundolo’s 64.54, indicating he has a more potent serve, which could play a crucial role on the hard court surface. Moreover, Thompson's mean return index of 93.42 also surpasses Cerundolo’s 85.14, highlighting his capability to challenge opponents' serves effectively. In their recent performances, Cerundolo has faced some difficulties, losing two out of his last three matches, including a disappointing exit against Eliot Spizzirri in Auckland. His last victory came against Shintaro Mochizuki, showcasing some resilience. Thompson, meanwhile, has a mixed record as well, recently losing to Ugo Humbert in Shanghai, but he did secure a win against August Holmgren prior to that, indicating he can be competitive when on form.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 37.9 Most likely outcome: 37 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The expected aces prediction for this match stands at approximately 15.35, while the expected double faults prediction is around 3.91. Given that hard courts provide a balanced playing field for both servers and returners, the potential for aces may be moderate. Thompson’s significant advantage in serve strength could lead to a higher ace count, while the expected double faults are fairly low, suggesting that both players may maintain a level of consistency in their service games.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 15.3 Most likely: 15 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 3.9 Most likely: 3 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Jordan Thompson is favored to win this match due to his superior serve and return statistics, which could give him the edge needed to capitalize on Cerundolo's recent struggles. A key factor to watch will be Thompson's ability to leverage his serve against Cerundolo's return, as this could dictate the flow of the match.

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