Jurij Rodionov vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

The model’s edge for Giovanni comes mainly from recent record by level, which contributes 11.3 percentage points toward his probability, and smaller boosts from lower fatigue and age. Those factors outweigh Jurij Rodionov’s higher Elo and stronger recent form index. Rodionov sits at rank 143 with a form index of 76.97 and an Elo of 1644.27. He arrives with heavy court time at this event, logged as 522 minutes of fatigue, and a surface strength index of 19.60. Giovanni is ranked 104 with a much lower form index of 20.34 and an Elo of 1476.02, but he shows zero fatigue from the current tournament and a surface strength index of 10.18. The model also nudges slightly toward Rodionov for surface fit by 1.1 points. Serve and return profiles matter here. Rodionov’s mean serve index is 94.56 and his mean return index is 88.73. Mpetshi Perricard posts a serve index of 97.60 and a return index of 80.53. The return index gap of about 8 points favors Rodionov and could shape rallies on hard courts. Recent form contrasts sharply. Rodionov has won three straight matches at this US Open, each long affairs. Mpetshi Perricard has lost his last three recorded matches at hard-court events, with shorter matches and no accumulated minutes in New York.