Karen Khachanov vs Billy Harris: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

The model’s edge for Khachanov comes primarily from his recent record by level, overall strength and a better surface fit. Khachanov’s higher ranking (22 vs 155) and superior Elo (1670.2 vs 1521.6) underpin the “overall strength” advantage, while his surface strength index (30.15) outpaces Harris’s (18.85) by a notable margin—one reason the model gives weight to grass suitability. Recent form also nudges the prediction toward Khachanov, even though his last two results include tight losses at Halle and Roland Garros; those matches were long affairs and include a win over Trungelliti, giving him mixed but high-level recent exposure. Stat lines reinforce the gap: Khachanov posts a form index of 36.88 with a mean serve index of 97.22 and mean return index of 93.77. Harris shows a higher form index numerically (42.48) but carries heavy fatigue from this tournament (522 minutes on court) and a much lower surface strength (18.85). The mean return index gap is meaningful—Khachanov’s 93.77 versus Harris’s 86.61 (difference >5)—which suggests Khachanov is more comfortable applying pressure on return games. Over the last three matches Khachanov has one win and two close defeats across grass and clay, while Harris arrives on a three-match winning streak at Wimbledon but with long, draining matches.