Bastad Sweden Clay Atp 250 Round of 16

Elias Ymer vs Luciano Darderi Prediction

Elias Ymer

Rank: #221
40%
VS

Luciano Darderi

Rank: #59
60%
Expected Total Games: 23.0
Predicted Winner: Luciano Darderi

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Ranking Trends

Elias Ymer

  • Current #221 2025-06-30
  • 3 mo ago #248 2025-04-14
  • 6 mo ago #327 2025-01-13
  • 9 mo ago #252 2024-10-14
  • 12 mo ago #202 2024-07-15

Luciano Darderi

  • Current #59 2025-06-30
  • 3 mo ago #47 2025-04-14
  • 6 mo ago #45 2025-01-13
  • 9 mo ago #44 2024-10-14
  • 12 mo ago #35 2024-07-15

Player Metrics

Elias Ymer

Form Index: 47.3
ELO Rating: 276.0
Glicko2 Rating: 1545.9
Current Fatigue (minutes): 134.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 1.6
Clay: 2.1
Grass: 2.7
Serve Rating: 97.3
Return Rating: 88.0

Luciano Darderi

Form Index: 58.6
ELO Rating: 1165.4
Glicko2 Rating: 1576.1
Current Fatigue (minutes): 129.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 7.7
Clay: 10.5
Grass: 9.8
Serve Rating: 95.6
Return Rating: 86.5

Recent Matches

Elias Ymer
✅ ❌ ✅ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Tristan Boyer (2-1) clay Bastad 134 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Brandon Holt (0-2) grass Mallorca 96 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Alexander Shevchenko (2-0) grass Mallorca 79 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Alexandre Muller (0-2) clay Hamburg 114 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Marko Topo (2-1) clay Hamburg 176 min

Luciano Darderi
✅ ❌ ✅ ✅ ❌

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Elias Ymer
vs
0
Luciano Darderi
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

The Round of 16 match at the ATP 250 tournament in Bastad, Sweden, features Elias Ymer taking on Luciano Darderi on clay. The predicted winner is Luciano Darderi, with a probability of 60.37% to win, while Elias Ymer has a 39.63% chance. The anticipated total number of games played in this contest is 23.0.

Match Analysis

Elias Ymer, currently ranked 221, has a form index of 47.34 and an Elo rating of 275.97. His cumulative fatigue stands at 134 minutes, indicating a significant time spent on court. Ymer's surface strength index is relatively low at 2.09, suggesting he may struggle on clay. His mean serve index of 97.34 and mean return index of 88.00 highlight a solid serving performance, but the difference from Darderi's indices is marginal. Luciano Darderi, on the other hand, is ranked 59 and possesses a higher form index of 58.63 along with a notably strong Elo rating of 1165.44. His fatigue level is slightly lower at 129 minutes, which could play into his favor. Darderi boasts a surface strength index of 10.48, demonstrating better adaptability on clay courts compared to Ymer. Furthermore, both players have similar mean serve indices, but Darderi has a marginally lower mean return index of 86.47, suggesting that while he may not excel in returns, his overall game on clay gives him a distinct advantage.

Final Prediction

Luciano Darderi's higher rank, form, and surface strength, coupled with a lower fatigue level, provide him with a competitive edge over Elias Ymer in this matchup. A key factor to observe will be how both players handle their service games, particularly if Darderi can leverage his slight advantage in overall adaptability to the clay surface.

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