Santiago Chile Clay Atp 250 Round of 32

Mariano Navone vs Vit Kopriva: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Mariano Navone

Rank: #77
49%
VS

Vit Kopriva

Rank: #65
51%
Expected Total Games: 21.8
Predicted Winner: Vit Kopriva

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Ranking Trends

Mariano Navone

  • Current #77 2026-02-23
  • 3 mo ago #72 2025-11-24
  • 6 mo ago #78 2025-08-25
  • 9 mo ago #97 2025-05-26
  • 12 mo ago #64 2025-02-24

Vit Kopriva

  • Current #65 2026-02-23
  • 3 mo ago #101 2025-11-24
  • 6 mo ago #89 2025-08-25
  • 9 mo ago #86 2025-05-26
  • 12 mo ago #121 2025-02-24

Player Metrics

Mariano Navone

Form Index: 17.6
ELO Rating: 711.3
Glicko2 Rating: 1599.1
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 4.8
Clay: 7.7
Grass: 6.8
Serve Rating: 67.5
Return Rating: 64.5

Vit Kopriva

Form Index: 63.8
ELO Rating: 730.1
Glicko2 Rating: 1564.1
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 5.5
Clay: 7.4
Grass: 5.0
Serve Rating: 96.8
Return Rating: 92.8

Recent Matches

Mariano Navone
❌ ❌ ✅ ❌ ❌

Vit Kopriva
❌ ✅ ✅ ✅ ❌

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Mariano Navone
vs
0
Vit Kopriva
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

This Round of 32 in Santiago, Chile is a clay-court match at a 250-level event. The model gives a very slim edge to Vit Kopriva: 50.51% probability versus Mariano Navone at 49.49%, with a predicted total of about 21.78 games in the match.

Match Analysis

Navone (rank 77) arrives with a low form index (17.58) and an Elo of 711.30; his surface strength index is 7.73 and cumulative fatigue is 0 minutes. Kopriva (rank 65) carries markedly better form (63.82) and a slightly higher Elo (730.06), with a surface strength index of 7.35 and no accumulated fatigue. There is a large gap in serving and returning: Kopriva’s mean serve index (96.77) is roughly 29 points higher than Navone’s (67.48), and his mean return index (92.78) is about 28 points higher than Navone’s (64.49), which should be highlighted as a key matchup imbalance. Looking at recent results, Navone is 1–2 in his last three matches, with a win over Emilio Nava and straight-set losses to Camilo Ugo Carabelli and Francisco Cerundolo on clay. Kopriva is 2–1 over his last three outings: wins over Juan Manuel Cerundolo and Roman Burruchaga and a long three-set loss to Tomas Etcheverry (237 minutes) in his most recent match. Both players show solid clay experience, but Kopriva’s recent form and match rhythm give him a small practical edge.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 21.8 Most likely outcome: 21 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Mariano Navone - Vit Kopriva) -0.4 Most likely spread: -1 (Vit Kopriva wins 1 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for this match is about 22.19 total aces, and the predicted double faults total is roughly 5.61. On clay, expected aces are typically lower because the slower surface and higher bounce reduce outright service winners; this moderating effect is reflected in the numbers. Kopriva’s significantly higher serve rating suggests he will be responsible for a disproportionate share of the predicted aces, while both players could accumulate the expected double faults if rallies extend and fatigue sets in.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 22.2 Most likely: 22 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 5.6 Most likely: 5 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Kopriva’s superior form, higher Elo and large serve/return index advantages are the marginal reasons he is favored. The key factor to watch will be Kopriva’s serve efficiency — if it produces free points without costly double faults, he should convert his narrow edge into a win.

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