Wimbledon Great Britain Grass Grand Slam Round of 128

Luca Van Assche vs Marton Fucsovics: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Luca Van Assche

Rank: #80
22%
VS

Marton Fucsovics

Rank: #76
78%
Expected Total Games: 35.0
Predicted Winner: Marton Fucsovics

Why the Model Favors Marton Fucsovics

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Recent record by level +12.2 Marton Fucsovics
Recent form +9.1 Marton Fucsovics
Age +5.7 Luca Van Assche
Surface fit +3.3 Marton Fucsovics
Serve & return game +2.9 Marton Fucsovics

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 78% for Marton Fucsovics. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network — not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Also available in Claude. Query these predictions in plain language — our native connector lets Claude call our models on demand, no code.

Set it up

Ranking Trends

Luca Van Assche

  • Current #80 2026-06-29
  • 3 mo ago #109 2026-03-30
  • 6 mo ago #166 2025-12-29
  • 9 mo ago #201 2025-09-29
  • 12 mo ago #180 2025-06-30

Marton Fucsovics

  • Current #76 2026-06-29
  • 3 mo ago #51 2026-03-30
  • 6 mo ago #55 2025-12-29
  • 9 mo ago #53 2025-09-29
  • 12 mo ago #105 2025-06-30

Player Metrics

Luca Van Assche

Form Index: 35.3
ELO Rating: 1510.2
Glicko2 Rating: 1533.1
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 13.3
Clay: 11.2
Grass: 3.9
Serve Rating: 94.9
Return Rating: 94.3

Marton Fucsovics

Form Index: 26.3
ELO Rating: 1537.2
Glicko2 Rating: 1569.6
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 26.8
Clay: 9.8
Grass: 17.4
Serve Rating: 96.0
Return Rating: 88.0

Recent Matches

Luca Van Assche
❌ ✅ ❌ ❌ ❌

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Brandon Nakashima (2-3) clay Roland Garros 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Vilius Gaubas (3-1) clay Roland Garros 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Max Schoenhaus (0-2) clay Hamburg 96 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Hugo Dellien (0-2) clay Rome 107 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Diego Dedura (0-2) clay Madrid 64 min

Marton Fucsovics
❌ ❌ ✅ ❌ ❌

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Luca Van Assche
vs
0
Marton Fucsovics
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Wimbledon, Great Britain — Round of 128 on grass at a grand slam. The model projects Marton Fucsovics to win, with a 78.21% probability versus 21.79% for Luca Van Assche, and an expected total of about 35.04 games in the match.

Match Analysis

The model’s edge for Fucsovics comes mainly from his recent record by level (+12.2 percentage points) and recent form (+9.1 points). That assessment reflects Fucsovics’ recent grass-court results, including a win at s'Hertogenbosch over Hubert Hurkacz, and multiple competitive grass events this season. Van Assche’s shorter run includes deeper clay matches — a five-set loss to Brandon Nakashima at Roland Garros and a win over Vilius Gaubas — but those clay results carry less weight on grass in the model’s view. Looking at the numbers, Fucsovics holds a slight ranking and Elo edge (rank 76, Elo 1537.16) over Van Assche (rank 80, Elo 1510.22). Both arrive fresh to this match with zero tournament fatigue. Surface strength favors Fucsovics (surface index 17.41 vs 3.90), which supports his grass credentials in the model (+3.3). Serve profiles are very similar — mean serve indices are close enough that there’s no material serving gap — but Van Assche’s mean return index is notably higher (94.28 vs 87.99), a >5-point difference that marks him as the superior returner on paper. Recent form on paper is mixed: Van Assche has a 1–2 finish across his last three matches (including a five-set battle at Roland Garros), while Fucsovics is 1–2 with a strong grass-level win among those results.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 35.0 Most likely outcome: 35 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Luca Van Assche - Marton Fucsovics) -3.7 Most likely spread: -4 (Marton Fucsovics wins 4 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The model’s aces prediction sits at 15.48 total aces and an expected double faults tally of 10.52. On fast grass, the aces prediction is naturally elevated — grass favors big, flat servers and typically increases ace counts. Since neither player shows a large serve-rating gap, the predicted aces come more from the surface than from a single dominant server. The double faults prediction reflects both players’ aggressive serving on a quick court.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 15.5 Most likely: 15 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 10.5 Most likely: 10 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

🎯 Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

43.1% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO5

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Luca Van Assche's perspective)

0-3 Most likely set score (43.6%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Fucsovics’ advantage is driven largely by recent record by level — his grass results and the quality of matches in that band. The key factor to monitor during the match is Van Assche’s return game: if he converts that clear return edge into early break opportunities, he can make this contest much closer than the raw probability suggests.

Get Daily Tennis Predictions

Enjoyed this analysis? Subscribe to our Telegram channel and receive daily AI-driven tennis predictions directly on your phone.

Join Our Telegram Channel