Michael Zheng vs Arthur Gea: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

The model’s edge for Zheng comes mainly from recent form and a clear fatigue advantage. Zheng carries a higher form index at 81.60 compared with Gea’s 63.27, and his Elo is also above Gea’s at 1797 versus 1749. This recent form advantage accounts for the largest single shift in the prediction. Zheng has been efficient in New York with two straight wins in the draw after a loss in Cincinnati, while Gea is 2 and 1 at this event with a tougher cumulative workload on court. Fatigue and recent workload also push the prediction toward Zheng. Zheng’s tournament minutes total 348, whereas Gea has accumulated 870 minutes, a substantial gap that favors the fresher player. Serve and return metrics give Zheng a narrow edge as well. Both players register similar mean serve indexes near 93, and their mean return indexes are close too, so no large serving gap is present. Surface fit slightly favors Zheng based on the surface strength indices, with Zheng at 29.40 and Gea at 33.87, a small difference that modestly supports Zheng on hard courts. Over the last three matches Zheng is 2-1, including straight sets and a four setter at the US Open. Gea is also 2-1, with two hard-fought wins and one earlier loss. Recent opponents and set patterns suggest both players can sustain multi-set battles on this surface.