Roland Garros France Clay Grand Slam Round of 128

Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Henrique Rocha Prediction

Nikoloz Basilashvili

Rank: #157
33%
VS

Henrique Rocha

Rank: #195
67%
Expected Total Games: 36.0
Predicted Winner: Henrique Rocha

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Player Metrics

Nikoloz Basilashvili

Form Index: 71.2
ELO Rating: 517.9
Glicko2 Rating: 1536.6
Current Fatigue (minutes): 522.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 4.5
Clay: 3.4
Grass: 2.3
Serve Rating: 95.3
Return Rating: 87.5

Henrique Rocha

Form Index: 72.1
ELO Rating: 453.7
Glicko2 Rating: 1533.0
Current Fatigue (minutes): 348.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 3.3
Clay: 3.7
Grass: 3.1
Serve Rating: 93.1
Return Rating: 85.4

Recent Matches

Nikoloz Basilashvili

Henrique Rocha

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Nikoloz Basilashvili
vs
0
Henrique Rocha
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

As the first round of the 2025 Roland Garros kicks off, Nikoloz Basilashvili faces Henrique Rocha on the clay courts of France. With the stakes high in this Grand Slam event, Rocha is favored to win with a probability of 67.22%, while Basilashvili holds a 32.78% chance. The predicted total number of games played is set at 36.

Match Analysis

Nikoloz Basilashvili currently holds a rank of 157, with a form index of 71.23 and an Elo rating of 517.94. His cumulative fatigue from the tournament stands at 522 minutes, which could impact his performance. Basilashvili's surface strength index of 3.39 is relatively competitive, but his mean serve index of 95.27 and mean return index of 87.54 suggest he has solid skills, though not overwhelmingly dominant. On the other hand, Henrique Rocha is ranked 195, with a slightly higher form index of 72.12 and a lower Elo rating of 453.68. Rocha's fatigue level is also lower at 348 minutes, giving him an edge in stamina. His surface strength index of 3.65 indicates good adaptability on clay, and while his mean serve index of 93.10 is lower than Basilashvili's by more than 5 points, his return index of 85.39 is competitive, though still below Basilashvili's by a similar margin. Both players have shown strong recent performances, with Basilashvili winning his last three matches without dropping a set, indicating solid form and confidence. Rocha has also performed well, winning two of his last three matches, with a notable win over Luca Van Assche in his most recent outing.

Final Prediction

Henrique Rocha's predicted advantage stems from a combination of lower fatigue and a slightly better form index, positioning him well for this matchup. A key factor to monitor will be the effectiveness of Rocha's return game, particularly against Basilashvili's strong serve, as it could dictate the pace and flow of the match.

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