Rafael Jodar vs Shintaro Mochizuki: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

The model’s edge for Jodar comes mainly from recent form and surface-related factors. Jodar’s form index (82.58) and a higher Elo (1938.12) underpin the 9.1- and 6.2-point pulls in his direction; he has beaten solid opponents recently at this event (straight sets vs Felix Gill and a 3–2 win over Pablo Carreno Busta). Mochizuki’s form index is lower at 64.90 and his Elo is 1655.97, which contributes to the gap. Fatigue is also relevant: Jodar has logged 348 minutes on court in this tournament versus Mochizuki’s 870 minutes, a major freshness advantage for Jodar. Surface fit is flagged by the model in Jodar’s favor despite the raw surface_strength_index (Jodar 13.95, Mochizuki 28.63) — the model is weighing Jodar’s concrete recent grass results rather than the index alone, hence the +8.7 points toward him. Overall record and opposition quality favor Jodar (+6.0), and the serve & return game nudges him further (+4.5). On the racket metrics, mean serve indices are close (Jodar 95.82, Mochizuki 93.35 — difference under 5 points), but Jodar’s mean return index (96.10) is meaningfully higher than Mochizuki’s (90.23), which should help him break serve more often. Over their last three matches at this event Jodar is 2–1 (including a recovery win vs Carreno Busta), while Mochizuki is unbeaten in three straight wins, though those wins came with far more time on court.