Buenos Aires Argentina Clay Atp 250 Round of 32

Roman Andres Burruchaga vs Laslo Djere: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Roman Andres Burruchaga

Rank: #118
32%
VS

Laslo Djere

Rank: #94
68%
Expected Total Games: 22.5
Predicted Winner: Laslo Djere

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Ranking Trends

Roman Andres Burruchaga

  • Current #118 2026-02-02
  • 3 mo ago #107 2025-11-10
  • 6 mo ago #145 2025-08-04
  • 9 mo ago #135 2025-05-05
  • 12 mo ago #141 2025-02-10

Laslo Djere

  • Current #94 2026-02-02
  • 3 mo ago #99 2025-11-10
  • 6 mo ago #69 2025-08-04
  • 9 mo ago #64 2025-05-05
  • 12 mo ago #112 2025-02-10

Player Metrics

Roman Andres Burruchaga

Form Index: 49.3
ELO Rating: 554.1
Glicko2 Rating: 1537.5
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 2.4
Clay: 3.8
Grass: 4.3
Serve Rating: 50.6
Return Rating: 97.7

Laslo Djere

Form Index: 18.4
ELO Rating: 612.1
Glicko2 Rating: 1551.1
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 5.1
Clay: 8.5
Grass: 5.9
Serve Rating: 97.9
Return Rating: 89.6

Recent Matches

Roman Andres Burruchaga
❌ ✅ ❌ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Arthur Gea (0-2) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Ryan Peniston (2-0) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Shintaro Mochizuki (1-2) hard Us Open 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Justin Engel (2-1) hard Us Open 174 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Ignacio Buse (1-2) clay Gstaad 134 min

Laslo Djere
❌ ❌ ✅ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Stan Wawrinka (1-3) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Marcos Giron (0-2) hard Hong Kong 59 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Emilio Nava (2-0) hard Hong Kong 125 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Elias Ymer (2-0) hard Hong Kong 111 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Alexander Shevchenko (0-2) hard Almaty 126 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Roman Andres Burruchaga
vs
0
Laslo Djere
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

This round-of-32 clay-court matchup in Buenos Aires (ATP 250) pits Roman Andres Burruchaga against Laslo Djere. The model favors Djere to win (68.46%) over Burruchaga (31.54%), with a predicted total of about 22.53 games in the match.

Match Analysis

Burruchaga (rank 118) arrives with a higher form index (49.28) than Djere (18.40) but has a lower Elo (554.13 vs 612.07). Both players show no accumulated fatigue from the event so far. Surface strength indices are low for both on clay (Burruchaga 3.79, Djere 8.47), suggesting neither is markedly dominant on this surface based on the proprietary metric. Serve and return profiles create a clear tactical contrast: Djere’s mean serve index (97.94) is far superior to Burruchaga’s (50.63) — a difference well over 5 points — while Burruchaga’s mean return index (97.66) is stronger than Djere’s (89.62) by more than 5 points. Recent form across the last three matches has been mixed and largely on hard courts: Burruchaga beat Ryan Peniston but fell to Arthur Gea and Shintaro Mochizuki, while Djere’s recent wins are limited to Emilio Nava with losses to Marcos Giron and Stan Wawrinka. These results show both players coming off varied outcomes rather than a steady streak.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 22.5 Most likely outcome: 22 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Roman Andres Burruchaga - Laslo Djere) +0.7 Most likely spread: 0 (even number of games won)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for this match is moderate: the model’s predicted aces total is 10.28. On clay, expected aces tend to be lower because slower, higher-bouncing conditions blunt raw serve speed, yet Djere’s significantly higher serve rating should lift the predicted ace count compared with a baseline clay match. As for double faults prediction, the expected double faults total is 3.75, reflecting the surface’s longer rallies and potential late-match fatigue contributing to more missed second serves.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 10.3 Most likely: 10 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 3.8 Most likely: 3 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Djere’s edge comes primarily from a much stronger serving profile and a higher Elo, which the model favors on balance despite Burruchaga’s superior return metric and recent better form index. Key factor to watch: whether Burruchaga can consistently convert his high return index into breaks against Djere’s powerful serve on clay.

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