Montpellier France Hard Atp 250 Round of 16

Tallon Griekspoor vs Pablo Carreno Busta: AI Prediction | Games, Aces & Double Faults

Tallon Griekspoor

Rank: #26
57%
VS

Pablo Carreno Busta

Rank: #94
43%
Expected Total Games: 23.7
Predicted Winner: Tallon Griekspoor

Ranking Trends

Tallon Griekspoor

  • Current Rank: #26 (2026-01-19)
  • 3 Months Ago: #25 (2025-11-03)
  • 6 Months Ago: #32 (2025-08-04)
  • 9 Months Ago: #35 (2025-05-05)
  • 12 Months Ago: #43 (2025-02-03)

Pablo Carreno Busta

  • Current Rank: #94 (2026-01-19)
  • 3 Months Ago: #91 (2025-11-03)
  • 6 Months Ago: #93 (2025-08-04)
  • 9 Months Ago: #98 (2025-05-05)
  • 12 Months Ago: #149 (2025-02-03)

Player Metrics

Tallon Griekspoor

Form Index: 19.1
ELO Rating: 1410.8
Glicko2 Rating: 1622.4
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 8.1
Clay: 11.4
Grass: 12.6
Serve Rating: 87.3
Return Rating: 49.1

Pablo Carreno Busta

Form Index: 31.0
ELO Rating: 703.5
Glicko2 Rating: 1535.6
Current Fatigue (minutes): 127.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 6.5
Clay: 6.2
Grass: 5.7
Serve Rating: 96.9
Return Rating: 90.6

Recent Matches

Tallon Griekspoor
❌ ❌ ✅ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Ethan Quinn (0-3) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Ugo Humbert (0-2) hard Adelaide 78 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Brandon Nakashima (2-0) hard Vienna 126 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Karen Khachanov (2-1) hard Vienna 123 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Jacob Fearnley (1-2) hard Stockholm 164 min

Pablo Carreno Busta
✅ ❌ ❌ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Miomir Kecmanovic (2-1) hard Montpellier 127 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Jakub Mensik (2-3) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Vit Kopriva (1-2) hard Auckland 120 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Grigor Dimitrov (0-2) hard Brisbane 67 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Arthur Cazaux (1-0) hard Brisbane 46 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

1
Tallon Griekspoor
vs
0
Pablo Carreno Busta
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
1 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

This Round of 16 clash in Montpellier, France (hard surface, 250-level event) pits Tallon Griekspoor against Pablo Carreno Busta. The model favors Tallon Griekspoor to win (57.18% vs 42.82%) with a predicted total of about 23.7 games in the match.

Match Analysis

Griekspoor comes in ranked 26 with a form index of 19.13 and an Elo of 1410.79; he shows no fatigue from the tournament (0 minutes) and a surface strength index of 8.13. Carreno Busta is ranked 94, has a higher form index at 31.01 but a much lower Elo at 703.53, carries 127 minutes of tournament fatigue, and has a surface strength index of 6.45. The mean serve indices differ by more than 5 points (Griekspoor 87.26 vs Carreno Busta 96.87), indicating Carreno projects as the stronger server in raw serve profile. The mean return indices diverge substantially as well (Griekspoor 49.11 vs Carreno Busta 90.59), suggesting Carreno’s return game is modeled far stronger. Recent results show Griekspoor with one win and two losses in his last three matches: a win in Vienna, followed by straight-set losses to Ugo Humbert and a three-set defeat at the Australian Open. Carreno Busta has one win at Montpellier (defeating Kecmanovic) and two earlier losses (Australian Open and Auckland). Those recent lines reflect contrasting momentum: Griekspoor’s higher ranking and Elo versus Carreno’s better recent form index and return/serve scores, but also Carreno’s accumulated match minutes this week.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 23.7 Most likely outcome: 23 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for this matchup is modest: predicted aces total about 8.89 for the match. The double faults prediction is an expected double faults total near 6.37. On a medium-paced hard court, aces are moderated compared with faster surfaces; Carreno’s significantly higher serve rating should push the expected ace count upward, while Griekspoor’s strong serve index also contributes to the predicted aces total.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 8.9 Most likely: 8 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 6.4 Most likely: 6 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Griekspoor’s edge comes from a higher ranking, a substantially higher Elo and the freshness advantage in minutes on court. The key factor to watch is the serve-versus-return dynamic — Carreno’s high return index versus Griekspoor’s serve quality will likely decide how many service games are broken and whether the match stays tight.

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