Australian Open Australia Hard Grand Slam Round of 128

Terence Atmane vs Francesco Maestrelli: AI Prediction | Games, Aces & Double Faults

Terence Atmane

Rank: #62
59%
VS

Francesco Maestrelli

Rank: #137
41%
Expected Total Games: 37.2
Predicted Winner: Terence Atmane

Ranking Trends

Terence Atmane

  • Current Rank: #62 (2026-01-05)
  • 3 Months Ago: #68 (2025-10-20)
  • 6 Months Ago: #136 (2025-07-21)
  • 9 Months Ago: #136 (2025-04-21)
  • 12 Months Ago: #154 (2025-01-13)

Francesco Maestrelli

  • Current Rank: #137 (2026-01-05)
  • 3 Months Ago: #153 (2025-10-20)
  • 6 Months Ago: #179 (2025-07-21)
  • 9 Months Ago: #296 (2025-04-21)
  • 12 Months Ago: #237 (2025-01-13)

Player Metrics

Terence Atmane

Form Index: 15.9
ELO Rating: 837.0
Glicko2 Rating: 1536.3
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 5.2
Clay: 5.2
Grass: 6.4
Serve Rating: 75.5
Return Rating: 71.5

Francesco Maestrelli

Form Index: 79.2
ELO Rating: 490.3
Glicko2 Rating: 1532.4
Current Fatigue (minutes): 522.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 10.6
Clay: 9.5
Grass: 9.2
Serve Rating: 93.1
Return Rating: 88.4

Recent Matches

Terence Atmane
❌ ❌ ✅ ❌ ❌

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Ugo Humbert (0-2) hard Adelaide 92 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs James Duckworth (0-2) hard Brisbane 89 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Yannick Hanfmann (2-0) hard Brisbane 94 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Hugo Gaston (0-2) hard Metz 51 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Aleksandar Vukic (1-2) hard Paris 113 min

Francesco Maestrelli
✅ ✅ ✅ ❌ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Lorenzo Giustino (2-0) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Dusan Lajovic (2-1) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Thiago Seyboth Wild (2-0) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Yi Zhou (0-1) hard Hong Kong 68 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs James McCabe (1-2) hard Us Open 174 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Terence Atmane
vs
0
Francesco Maestrelli
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

The upcoming clash between Terence Atmane and Francesco Maestrelli at the Australian Open marks a crucial moment in the Round of 128. Set on hard courts, the match is expected to be competitive, with Terence Atmane slightly favored to win, holding a probability of 59.31% compared to Maestrelli's 40.69%. Fans can anticipate a closely contested matchup with an expected total of approximately 37.2 games.

Match Analysis

Terence Atmane, currently ranked 62, has a form index of 15.90 and an Elo rating of 837, indicating a challenging recent form. His fatigue level stands at 0, which suggests he is fresh and ready for this encounter. Although his surface strength index is relatively low at 5.21, his mean serve index of 75.49 does provide him with a solid foundation on hard courts. In contrast, Francesco Maestrelli, ranked 137, boasts a significantly higher form index of 79.19 and an Elo rating of 490. His cumulative fatigue of 522 minutes indicates he has been pushed hard in recent matches, but his surface strength index of 10.64 and mean serve index of 93.13 highlight his capability as a server. Notably, the difference of 17.64 in their mean serve index could provide Atmane with a distinct advantage in service games. In their recent performances, Atmane has struggled, losing his last two matches against Ugo Humbert and James Duckworth, while only winning against Yannick Hanfmann three matches ago. Conversely, Maestrelli has demonstrated impressive form, winning all three of his recent matches, including two at the Australian Open against Dusan Lajovic and Lorenzo Giustino. This contrast in recent form places Maestrelli in a favorable position heading into this match.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 37.2 Most likely outcome: 37 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The match is expected to see around 18.69 aces, reflecting the hard court surface that typically produces a balanced number of aces. With Atmane's mean serve index significantly lower than Maestrelli’s, it could lead to an increased ace count for Maestrelli, who is anticipated to capitalize on his serving prowess. Meanwhile, the expected total of 4.48 double faults suggests that both players may struggle with consistency under pressure, which could prove decisive in tight moments.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 18.7 Most likely: 18 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 4.5 Most likely: 4 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Terence Atmane's slight edge in predicted winning probability stems from his higher serve rating and fresh condition, which could play a crucial role in a hard-fought match. However, Maestrelli's recent form and superior serve strength will be pivotal factors to monitor, as they could tilt the match in his favor if he maintains his current level of performance.

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