Indian Wells CA, U.S.A. Hard Masters 1000 Round of 128

Terence Atmane vs Grigor Dimitrov: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Terence Atmane

Rank: #63
45%
VS

Grigor Dimitrov

Rank: #44
55%
Expected Total Games: 23.7
Predicted Winner: Grigor Dimitrov

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Ranking Trends

Terence Atmane

  • Current #63 2026-02-23
  • 3 mo ago #63 2025-12-01
  • 6 mo ago #69 2025-08-25
  • 9 mo ago #121 2025-05-26
  • 12 mo ago #168 2025-03-03

Grigor Dimitrov

  • Current #44 2026-02-23
  • 3 mo ago #44 2025-12-01
  • 6 mo ago #25 2025-08-25
  • 9 mo ago #17 2025-05-26
  • 12 mo ago #15 2025-03-03

Player Metrics

Terence Atmane

Form Index: 42.5
ELO Rating: 816.8
Glicko2 Rating: 1541.4
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 4.7
Clay: 5.3
Grass: 7.2
Serve Rating: 81.7
Return Rating: 70.6

Grigor Dimitrov

Form Index: 17.9
ELO Rating: 1010.0
Glicko2 Rating: 1798.4
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 9.7
Clay: 8.8
Grass: 10.0
Serve Rating: 97.4
Return Rating: 88.7

Recent Matches

Terence Atmane
❌ ✅ ✅ ❌ ✅

Grigor Dimitrov
❌ ❌ ❌ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Terence Atmane (0-2) hard Acapulco 82 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Alex Michelsen (1-2) hard Dallas 125 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Tomas Machac (0-3) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Raphael Collignon (0-2) hard Brisbane 108 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Pablo Carreno Busta (2-0) hard Brisbane 67 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

1
Terence Atmane
vs
0
Grigor Dimitrov
Hard
1 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

At Indian Wells in California, the round of 128 on outdoor hard courts brings a compelling clash between Terence Atmane and Grigor Dimitrov at a Masters 1000 event. The model narrowly favors Dimitrov (55.44%) over Atmane (44.56%), with a predicted total of about 23.7 games — suggesting a straight-sets affair or one settled in two tight sets.

Match Analysis

On paper the matchup is a study in contrasts. Atmane (rank 63) arrives with a stronger recent form index (42.45) but a lower Elo (816.82) than Dimitrov (rank 44, Elo 1009.96). Both players report zero tournament fatigue. Dimitrov’s surface strength index (9.72) edges Atmane’s (4.66), and his superior Elo underlines more consistent results over time even if his short-term form appears fragile. Serve and return numbers tilt clearly toward Dimitrov. His mean serve index (97.42) is substantially higher than Atmane’s (81.72) — a difference above 5 points that will likely shape many service games. The gap in mean return index is also notable (Dimitrov 88.74 vs Atmane 70.60), which suggests Dimitrov is stronger on both initiation and response phases. Recent match logs show Atmane defeating Dimitrov in Acapulco (2-0) and beating Rafael Jodar before losing to Miomir Kecmanovic, while Dimitrov has dropped his last three recorded matches, including that Acapulco reverse and defeats in Dallas and the Australian Open.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 23.7 Most likely outcome: 23 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Terence Atmane - Grigor Dimitrov) -2.1 Most likely spread: -3 (Grigor Dimitrov wins 3 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for this hard-court match stands at roughly 10.6 total, with a predicted aces split favoring Dimitrov given his much higher serve index. Expected double faults are moderate at about 4.47 for the match — an expected double faults figure consistent with a medium-paced hard surface. Because Dimitrov’s serve rating is markedly higher, he is the likelier source of the larger share of the predicted aces.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 10.6 Most likely: 10 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 4.5 Most likely: 4 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Dimitrov’s edge comes from superior historical quality (Elo) and markedly better serve/return metrics, despite Atmane’s brighter recent form. Watch the early service games and break-point conversion: they will likely decide whether Atmane can level the ledger or Dimitrov reasserts his higher-level consistency.

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