Montpellier France Hard Atp 250 Round of 32

Titouan Droguet vs Jan Choinski: AI Prediction | Games, Aces & Double Faults

Titouan Droguet

Rank: #155
50%
VS

Jan Choinski

Rank: #124
50%
Expected Total Games: 22.7
Predicted Winner: Jan Choinski

Ranking Trends

Titouan Droguet

  • Current Rank: #155 (2026-01-19)
  • 3 Months Ago: #150 (2025-11-03)
  • 6 Months Ago: #161 (2025-08-04)
  • 9 Months Ago: #206 (2025-05-05)
  • 12 Months Ago: #176 (2025-02-03)

Jan Choinski

  • Current Rank: #124 (2026-01-19)
  • 3 Months Ago: #126 (2025-11-03)
  • 6 Months Ago: #151 (2025-08-04)
  • 9 Months Ago: #187 (2025-05-05)
  • 12 Months Ago: #198 (2025-02-03)

Player Metrics

Titouan Droguet

Form Index: 40.7
ELO Rating: 390.9
Glicko2 Rating: 1534.8
Current Fatigue (minutes): 192.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 1.3
Clay: 3.6
Grass: 2.9
Serve Rating: 55.1
Return Rating: 47.4

Jan Choinski

Form Index: 14.6
ELO Rating: 451.3
Glicko2 Rating: 1529.6
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 3.7
Clay: 4.0
Grass: 4.0
Serve Rating: 95.8
Return Rating: 94.8

Recent Matches

Titouan Droguet
✅ ✅ ❌ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Ugo Blanchet (2-1) hard Montpellier 137 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Robin Bertrand (2-0) hard Montpellier 55 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Martin Damm (0-2) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Marko Topo (1-2) hard Almaty 122 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs August Holmgren (2-0) hard Almaty 114 min

Jan Choinski
❌ ❌ ✅ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Leandro Riedi (0-2) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Lorenzo Sonego (1-2) hard Metz 136 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Kyrian Jacquet (2-1) hard Metz 102 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Harold Mayot (1-0) hard Metz 29 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Andrea Collarini (0-2) hard Us Open 174 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

1
Titouan Droguet
vs
0
Jan Choinski
Hard
1 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

This Round of 32 match in Montpellier, France (hard, 250-level event) pits home player Titouan Droguet against Jan Choinski. The model gives Choinski a very narrow edge: Jan Choinski 50.05% vs Titouan Droguet 49.95%, with a predicted total of about 22.66 games in the match.

Match Analysis

Rank and ratings paint a close matchup. Droguet (rank 155) arrives with a stronger recent form index (40.73) than Choinski (14.60), but Choinski holds the higher Elo (451.34 vs 390.87). Droguet also carries 192 minutes of tournament court time, while Choinski shows 0 fatigue from this event, a freshness advantage for Choinski. Surface strength indices are low for both (Droguet 1.26, Choinski 3.68) but slightly favor Choinski. Serve and return profiles show big contrasts: Choinski’s mean serve index (95.77) is substantially higher than Droguet’s (55.10) — a difference well over 5 points — and his mean return index (94.76) also far outstrips Droguet’s (47.42). Those gaps suggest Choinski can impose his game on both serve and return. Over the last three matches Droguet has won two in Montpellier (a 137-minute three-setter and a quick 55-minute win) after a straight-sets loss at the Australian Open. Choinski’s recent stretch is mixed: a win in Metz followed by two losses (including a 174-minute defeat at the Australian Open and a 136-minute loss to Sonego).

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 22.7 Most likely outcome: 22 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for this match is about 15.91 total, with predicted aces skewed toward the player with the much higher serve index. Expected double faults are roughly 5.94 for the match. On this medium-paced hard court, predicted aces are moderate — harder than clay but below typical grass numbers — and the heavy serving profile for Choinski will likely boost the ace count in this projection. The double faults prediction reflects a moderate risk from both servers over a short match.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 15.9 Most likely: 15 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 5.9 Most likely: 5 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Choinski’s slight edge comes from superior Elo, a dominant serve/return profile and freshness at this event; the margin is minimal, so match dynamics will matter. Watch Choinski’s serve impact early: if he converts free points, the match could stay short and follow the low total-games projection.

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