Rio Brazil Clay Atp 500 Semifinals

Tomas Martin Etcheverry vs Vit Kopriva: AI Prediction | Games, Aces & Double Faults

Tomas Martin Etcheverry

Rank: #54
51%
VS

Vit Kopriva

Rank: #95
49%
Expected Total Games: 23.8
Predicted Winner: Tomas Martin Etcheverry

Ranking Trends

Tomas Martin Etcheverry

  • Current Rank: #54 (2026-02-09)
  • 3 Months Ago: #60 (2025-11-17)
  • 6 Months Ago: #58 (2025-08-18)
  • 9 Months Ago: #55 (2025-05-19)
  • 12 Months Ago: #43 (2025-02-17)

Vit Kopriva

  • Current Rank: #95 (2026-02-09)
  • 3 Months Ago: #102 (2025-11-17)
  • 6 Months Ago: #87 (2025-08-18)
  • 9 Months Ago: #85 (2025-05-19)
  • 12 Months Ago: #120 (2025-02-17)

Player Metrics

Tomas Martin Etcheverry

Form Index: 61.0
ELO Rating: 981.2
Glicko2 Rating: 1644.7
Current Fatigue (minutes): 406.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 6.9
Clay: 8.3
Grass: 7.1
Serve Rating: 78.1
Return Rating: 57.6

Vit Kopriva

Form Index: 67.6
ELO Rating: 739.5
Glicko2 Rating: 1567.3
Current Fatigue (minutes): 294.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 5.5
Clay: 7.4
Grass: 5.0
Serve Rating: 96.7
Return Rating: 92.7

Recent Matches

Tomas Martin Etcheverry
✅ ✅ ✅ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Jaime Faria (2-0) clay Rio 123 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Vilius Gaubas (2-0) clay Rio 127 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Francisco Comesana (2-1) clay Rio 156 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Francisco Cerundolo (0-2) clay Buenos Aires 111 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Alejandro Tabilo (2-1) clay Buenos Aires 126 min

Vit Kopriva
✅ ✅ ✅ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo (2-0) clay Rio 97 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Roman Andres Burruchaga (2-0) clay Rio 88 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Gustavo Heide (2-0) clay Rio 109 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Francisco Cerundolo (0-2) clay Buenos Aires 97 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Matteo Berrettini (2-0) clay Buenos Aires 94 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Tomas Martin Etcheverry
vs
0
Vit Kopriva
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

This is a clay-court semifinal in Rio (500-level event) between Tomas Martin Etcheverry and Vit Kopriva. The model favors Tomas Martin Etcheverry to win (50.70% vs 49.30% for Kopriva) with an expected 23.76 total games in the match.

Match Analysis

Etcheverry enters with the higher rank (54 vs 95), a stronger Elo (981.23 vs 739.51) and a surface strength index of 8.31 compared with Kopriva’s 7.44, suggesting a slight clay advantage. His form index (61.01) is solid and he has accumulated 406 minutes on court this week, indicating higher fatigue than Kopriva (294 minutes). Kopriva shows a higher form index (67.57) and very strong serve and return metrics, but his overall Elo and ranking lag behind Etcheverry. There are notable differences in serve and return profiles: Kopriva’s mean serve index (96.67) exceeds Etcheverry’s (78.08) by more than 5 points, and his mean return index (92.71) is also markedly higher than Etcheverry’s (57.55), both differences likely to shape tactical choices. Over their last three matches at this event, Etcheverry has won three straight matches including one three-set contest (longer durations: 156, 127, 123 minutes) while Kopriva has also won three straight matches but in quicker straight-set performances (109, 88, 97 minutes), reflecting a fresher state for Kopriva and tougher minutes for Etcheverry.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 23.8 Most likely outcome: 23 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for the match is modest: predicted aces total 8.89, while the expected double faults are 6.37. On clay, fewer aces are typical because the slower surface and higher bounce reduce serve winners, and expected double faults can rise as matches and fatigue accumulate. Kopriva’s significantly higher serve rating means he is likely to contribute a larger share of the predicted aces, while Etcheverry’s accumulated minutes could feed into the expected double faults.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 8.9 Most likely: 8 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 6.4 Most likely: 6 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Etcheverry’s edge comes from superior ranking, Elo and a slightly better clay profile, despite carrying more minutes this week. The key factor to watch is how Etcheverry handles Kopriva’s heavy serving and returning—if he neutralizes those strengths while managing fatigue, he should justify the narrow prediction.

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