Santiago Chile Clay Atp 250 Round of 16

Dino Prizmic vs Vilius Gaubas: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Dino Prizmic

Rank: #120
49%
VS

Vilius Gaubas

Rank: #107
51%
Expected Total Games: 22.7
Predicted Winner: Vilius Gaubas

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Player Metrics

Dino Prizmic

Form Index: 53.3
ELO Rating: 500.9
Glicko2 Rating: 1538.5
Current Fatigue (minutes): 383.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 2.1
Clay: 4.2
Grass: 4.1
Serve Rating: 47.4
Return Rating: 61.5

Vilius Gaubas

Form Index: 52.9
ELO Rating: 462.4
Glicko2 Rating: 1544.5
Current Fatigue (minutes): 251.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 3.4
Clay: 5.1
Grass: 3.8
Serve Rating: 96.3
Return Rating: 92.8

Recent Matches

Dino Prizmic

Vilius Gaubas

  • Last Match: vs Matias Soto (2-0) clay Santiago 95 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Alex Barrena (0-2) clay Santiago 70 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva (2-0) clay Santiago 86 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Tomas Martin Etcheverry (0-2) clay Rio 127 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Guto Miguel (2-1) clay Rio 131 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Dino Prizmic
vs
0
Vilius Gaubas
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

This Round of 16 match in Santiago, Chile (clay, 250-level event) projects to be very tight. Vilius Gaubas is the narrow favorite, with a 50.85% chance to win versus 49.15% for Dino Prizmic, and the model expects about 22.74 total games in the match.

Match Analysis

Dino Prizmic (rank 120) brings a higher Elo (500.94) into the contest and a slightly higher form index (53.29) than Gaubas, indicating solid recent results. However, Prizmic arrives with significantly more time on court in this tournament (383 minutes) compared with Gaubas (251 minutes), which increases his fatigue load. Both players have modest surface strength indices on clay (Prizmic 4.17, Gaubas 5.11), so neither has a decisive clay-court pedigree advantage based on that metric. Vilius Gaubas (rank 107) posts notably different serve and return profiles: his mean serve index (96.33) and mean return index (92.82) are substantially higher than Prizmic’s serve (47.44) and return (61.49) — differences well above 5 points for both metrics. Those gaps suggest Gaubas can both hold serve more comfortably and generate easier opportunities on return, even on slower clay where serving impact is moderated. Recent form shows Prizmic on a three-match win streak in Santiago (including a long 157-minute match versus Nicolás Jarry), while Gaubas is 2–1 in his last three matches here, with one straight-sets loss to Alex Barrena. Prizmic’s heavier court time and longer matches could be a factor as the contest progresses.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 22.7 Most likely outcome: 22 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Probability distribution chart for total games in Dino Prizmic versus Vilius Gaubas. The X-axis shows possible total games values and the Y-axis shows the predicted probability percentage for each outcome.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total games in Dino Prizmic versus Vilius Gaubas. The curve rises from 0% to 100%, showing the cumulative probability for each games total threshold.

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Dino Prizmic - Vilius Gaubas) +0.4 Most likely spread: 0 (even number of games won)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Probability distribution chart for games spread in Dino Prizmic versus Vilius Gaubas. Positive values indicate Dino Prizmic winning more games, negative values indicate Vilius Gaubas winning more games.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for games spread in Dino Prizmic versus Vilius Gaubas. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each spread threshold.

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for the match is moderate: a predicted aces total of about 16.46. Clay typically reduces ace counts, so the surface tempers that number despite Gaubas’s big-serve rating. The double faults prediction sits at an expected double faults total of roughly 5.44; slower, more physical clay rallies and accumulated fatigue often raise double fault risk. Given Gaubas’s significantly higher serve rating, he is likely to contribute a larger share of the predicted aces, though clay will blunt that edge.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 16.5 Most likely: 16 aces
Expected Total Double Faults 5.4 Most likely: 5 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Probability distribution chart for total aces in Dino Prizmic versus Vilius Gaubas. Higher ace counts are more likely on faster surfaces like grass.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total aces in Dino Prizmic versus Vilius Gaubas. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each aces threshold.

Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Probability distribution chart for double faults in Dino Prizmic versus Vilius Gaubas. Clay surface matches tend to produce more double faults due to fatigue in longer rallies.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for double faults in Dino Prizmic versus Vilius Gaubas. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each double faults threshold.

Final Prediction

Gaubas’s superior serving and returning indices and lower cumulative fatigue give him a slight edge in a match the model sees as extremely close. The key factor to watch will be how Gaubas converts free points on serve and whether Prizmic’s higher court time undermines his consistency late in rallies.

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