Nicolas Jarry

ATP ELO profile · tour-level matches since 2015

ELO 1474 Last match: Mar 18, 2026 · inactive

Season ELO trajectory

One point per match: the player's ELO rating after that match, matches in round order. Ratings are season-scoped: every January the engine re-seeds each player from ATP entry points, then updates after every result. That is why trajectories are shown one season at a time. Hover a point for the match behind it.

Career record

138-135 50.5% in 273 matches

Clay 82-63
Grass 19-15
Hard 37-57

Season by season

SeasonMW-LStartPeakEnd
2026 4 0-4 1545 1533 1474
2025 32 13-19 1639 1815 1656
2024 37 15-22 1681 1854 1577
2023 58 40-18 1537 1886 1825
2022 21 13-8 1546 1715 1664
2021 3 1-2 1500 1519 1497
2020 2 1-1 1568 1581 1565
2019 43 19-24 1602 1679 1533
2018 46 25-21 1552 1737 1626
2017 13 7-6 1516 1688 1578
2016 2 0-2 1512 1508 1483
2015 12 4-8 1522 1548 1385

Recent matches

WeekTournamentOpponentResult
Mar 18, 2026 Miami · Hard Mattia Bellucci L 0-2
Mar 04, 2026 Indian Wells · Hard Francesco Maestrelli L 1-2
Feb 23, 2026 Santiago · Clay Dino Prizmic L 1-2
Feb 16, 2026 Rio · Clay Jaime Faria L 1-2
Aug 24, 2025 Us Open · Hard Jakub Mensik L 0-3
Aug 17, 2025 Winston Salem · Hard Kamil Majchrzak L 0-2
Aug 07, 2025 Cincinnati · Hard Pedro Martinez L 1-2
Jul 21, 2025 Kitzbuhel · Clay Botic van de Zandschulp L 1-2
Jun 30, 2025 Wimbledon · Grass Cameron Norrie L 2-3
Joao Fonseca W 3-1

Serve predictions: how close do we get on Nicolas Jarry?

2025 · out-of-sample backtest Aces per match: 11.7 actual vs 8.6 projected
5.75 our average miss per match
7.21 baseline average miss (last five matches)
+20% accuracy edge over the baseline

Comparison covers 22 of the 27 aces projections we made in 2025. A match needs five earlier matches on record before the baseline exists.

The baseline predicts a player's aces as the average of their last five matches. Our model beats it when its projections land closer to what actually happened. Both numbers are the average miss per match, so lower is better, and both are for the selected season only.

Predictability: does Nicolas Jarry follow the script?

On serve · 2025
SeasonMW-LModel hitUpsetsVerdict
2025 27 9-18 51.9% 13 vs 10.1 exp On serve
2024 bt 37 15-22 43.2% 21 vs 12.9 exp Wild card

An upset = our model's favorite losing. "Upsets" compares how many actually happened in Nicolas Jarry's matches with how many the model expected for that exact schedule. A season-level read (a wild-card season does not carry over year to year). How to read this · full board: most predictable ATP players.

Reuse this data · CC BY 4.0

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Data: <a href="https://www.predixsport.com/tennis-power-rankings/nicolas-jarry">ATP ELO ratings by Predixsport</a> (CC BY 4.0)