Rio Brazil Clay Atp 500 Round of 32

Gustavo Heide vs Vit Kopriva: AI Prediction | Games, Aces & Double Faults

Gustavo Heide

Rank: #257
32%
VS

Vit Kopriva

Rank: #95
68%
Expected Total Games: 22.7
Predicted Winner: Vit Kopriva

Ranking Trends

Gustavo Heide

  • Current Rank: #257 (2026-02-09)
  • 3 Months Ago: #309 (2025-11-17)
  • 6 Months Ago: #327 (2025-08-18)
  • 9 Months Ago: #194 (2025-05-19)
  • 12 Months Ago: #162 (2025-02-17)

Vit Kopriva

  • Current Rank: #95 (2026-02-09)
  • 3 Months Ago: #102 (2025-11-17)
  • 6 Months Ago: #87 (2025-08-18)
  • 9 Months Ago: #85 (2025-05-19)
  • 12 Months Ago: #120 (2025-02-17)

Player Metrics

Gustavo Heide

Form Index: 27.1
ELO Rating: 220.0
Glicko2 Rating: 1530.1
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 1.9
Clay: 2.4
Grass: 1.9
Serve Rating: 65.4
Return Rating: 0.0

Vit Kopriva

Form Index: 46.3
ELO Rating: 694.1
Glicko2 Rating: 1556.2
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 5.5
Clay: 7.0
Grass: 5.0
Serve Rating: 96.6
Return Rating: 93.5

Recent Matches

Gustavo Heide
❌ ❌ ✅ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Dino Prizmic (0-2) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Jaime Faria (1-2) clay Santiago 167 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Thiago Seyboth Wild (2-0) clay Santiago 104 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Thiago Agustin Tirante (2-1) clay Santiago 154 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Genaro Alberto Olivieri (2-0) clay Santiago 72 min

Vit Kopriva
❌ ✅ ✅ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Francisco Cerundolo (0-2) clay Buenos Aires 97 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Matteo Berrettini (2-0) clay Buenos Aires 94 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Alex Barrena (2-1) clay Buenos Aires 147 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Taylor Fritz (0-3) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Jan-Lennard Struff (3-2) hard Australian Open 174 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Gustavo Heide
vs
0
Vit Kopriva
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

This round-of-32 clay matchup in Rio (an atp_500 event in Brazil) pits Gustavo Heide against Vit Kopriva. The model favors Vit Kopriva to win (67.74% vs 32.26% for Heide) with a projected total of about 22.7 games in the match.

Match Analysis

Heide enters ranked 257 with a modest form index (27.09) and an Elo around 220.0; his surface strength index is low (2.40) and cumulative fatigue from this event is zero. Kopriva is the higher-ranked player at 95, carries a stronger form index (46.30) and a substantially higher Elo (694.10); his surface strength index is also higher (6.995) and he has no fatigue recorded in the tournament so far. The difference in mean serve index is notable: Kopriva (96.60) versus Heide (65.36) — a gap of over 30 points — and the mean return index gap is likewise large (Kopriva 93.51 vs Heide 0.0), both of which favor Kopriva’s all-court offensive profile on serve and return. Recent results underline those numbers. Heide’s last three matches show one win (straight sets vs Thiago Seyboth Wild in Santiago) and two defeats, including a long 174-minute loss at the Australian Open and a three-set loss in Santiago. Kopriva has two wins and a loss in his most recent three: solid clay victories in Buenos Aires over Matteo Berrettini and Alex Barrena, followed by a straight-sets defeat to Francisco Cerundolo. The combination of Kopriva’s higher form, Elo and serving/returning indices points to a clear edge on clay.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 22.7 Most likely outcome: 22 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for this match is 16.46 total, and the predicted aces are likely to be concentrated with Kopriva given his much higher serve index. Clay’s slower, higher-bouncing surface typically reduces ace volume, so that aces prediction reflects a moderation compared with faster courts. The double faults prediction sits at 5.44 expected double faults, a figure that can be pushed up by longer rallies and physical demands on clay.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 16.5 Most likely: 16 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 5.4 Most likely: 5 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Kopriva’s superior rankings, Elo and pronounced serving/returning edges make him the clear favorite in this clay encounter. The key factor to watch will be Kopriva’s serve and how effectively Heide can generate returns to disrupt hold-to-hold patterns early in rallies.

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