Wimbledon Great Britain Grass Grand Slam Round of 128

Vit Kopriva vs Jan Choinski: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Vit Kopriva

Rank: #64
66%
VS

Jan Choinski

Rank: #100
34%
Expected Total Games: 37.8
Predicted Winner: Vit Kopriva

Why the Model Favors Vit Kopriva

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Recent form +7.7 Vit Kopriva
Surface fit +6.7 Vit Kopriva
Overall strength +5.5 Vit Kopriva
Age +0.8 Vit Kopriva
Overall record & opposition quality +0.8 Vit Kopriva

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 66% for Vit Kopriva. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network — not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Also available in Claude. Query these predictions in plain language — our native connector lets Claude call our models on demand, no code.

Set it up

Ranking Trends

Vit Kopriva

  • Current #64 2026-06-29
  • 3 mo ago #70 2026-03-30
  • 6 mo ago #103 2025-12-29
  • 9 mo ago #93 2025-09-29
  • 12 mo ago #78 2025-06-30

Jan Choinski

  • Current #100 2026-06-29
  • 3 mo ago #120 2026-03-30
  • 6 mo ago #125 2025-12-29
  • 9 mo ago #158 2025-09-29
  • 12 mo ago #200 2025-06-30

Player Metrics

Vit Kopriva

Form Index: 40.7
ELO Rating: 1657.2
Glicko2 Rating: 1702.0
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 15.8
Clay: 22.0
Grass: 7.4
Serve Rating: 95.4
Return Rating: 95.5

Jan Choinski

Form Index: 48.3
ELO Rating: 1561.0
Glicko2 Rating: 1577.4
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 10.2
Clay: 10.7
Grass: 9.5
Serve Rating: 95.6
Return Rating: 87.3

Recent Matches

Vit Kopriva
❌ ✅ ✅ ❌ ❌

Jan Choinski
❌ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Zizou Bergs (0-2) grass Eastbourne 76 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Felix Gill (2-1) grass Eastbourne 135 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Alexei Popyrin (2-1) grass Eastbourne 98 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Marcos Giron (2-1) grass Eastbourne 166 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Yibing Wu (2-0) grass Eastbourne 92 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Vit Kopriva
vs
0
Jan Choinski
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

At Wimbledon in Great Britain, Round of 128 on grass, Vit Kopriva is favored to beat Jan Choinski in this grand slam encounter. The model projects Kopriva to win with a probability of 66.14% versus 33.86% for Choinski, and forecasts about 37.83 total games in the match.

Match Analysis

The model's edge for Kopriva comes mainly from recent form and surface fit. Kopriva’s recent grass swing in Mallorca (two wins before a tight three-set loss) and strong grass metrics underpin the surface-fit advantage (+6.7 percentage points) and recent-form lift (+7.7). Kopriva is the higher-ranked player (No. 64 vs No. 100) and carries the stronger Elo (1658 vs 1561), contributing to the overall-strength advantage noted by the model. Looking at the numbers: Kopriva posts a form index of 40.42, an Elo of 1657.9, zero fatigue from the event, and a surface strength index of 7.45. Choinski’s form index is 48.02 with Elo 1561.2, the same zero fatigue, and a slightly higher surface strength index of 9.45. Serve ratings are very similar (mean serve ~95.4 for Kopriva and ~95.6 for Choinski), so there’s no meaningful serving gap; however Kopriva’s mean return index (95.45) is materially higher than Choinski’s (87.27), a difference greater than five points that favors return games for Kopriva. Over their last three outings, Kopriva beat Dzumhur and Buse before losing to Ethan Quinn in a 3-set Mallorca match; Choinski beat Gill and Popyrin in Eastbourne before a straight-sets defeat to Zizou Bergs.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 37.8 Most likely outcome: 37 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Vit Kopriva - Jan Choinski) +2.0 Most likely spread: +2 (Vit Kopriva wins 2 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction sits at a predicted aces total of about 16.27 for the match, while the expected double faults total is 8.75. On fast grass, that elevated aces prediction aligns with the surface tendency to reward big, flat servers. Because serve ratings are effectively level between the two players, neither side is expected to dominate the ace count purely on serve rating alone.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 16.3 Most likely: 16 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 8.8 Most likely: 8 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

🎯 Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

42.6% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO5

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Vit Kopriva's perspective)

3-0 Most likely set score (32.0%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Kopriva’s edge is driven primarily by recent form — his grass results and superior overall strength metrics — and a stronger return profile to exploit short rallies on grass. A key factor to watch is Kopriva’s return efficiency early in service games; if he breaks into Choinski’s service games, the match should tilt decisively his way.

Get Daily Tennis Predictions

Enjoyed this analysis? Subscribe to our Telegram channel and receive daily AI-driven tennis predictions directly on your phone.

Join Our Telegram Channel