Rio Brazil Clay Atp 500 Quarterfinals

Vit Kopriva vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo: AI Prediction | Games, Aces & Double Faults

Vit Kopriva

Rank: #95
59%
VS

Juan Manuel Cerundolo

Rank: #80
41%
Expected Total Games: 22.4
Predicted Winner: Vit Kopriva

Ranking Trends

Vit Kopriva

  • Current Rank: #95 (2026-02-09)
  • 3 Months Ago: #102 (2025-11-17)
  • 6 Months Ago: #87 (2025-08-18)
  • 9 Months Ago: #85 (2025-05-19)
  • 12 Months Ago: #120 (2025-02-17)

Juan Manuel Cerundolo

  • Current Rank: #80 (2026-02-09)
  • 3 Months Ago: #85 (2025-11-17)
  • 6 Months Ago: #85 (2025-08-18)
  • 9 Months Ago: #109 (2025-05-19)
  • 12 Months Ago: #127 (2025-02-17)

Player Metrics

Vit Kopriva

Form Index: 55.6
ELO Rating: 712.4
Glicko2 Rating: 1563.5
Current Fatigue (minutes): 197.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 3.2
Clay: 6.0
Grass: 4.8
Serve Rating: 62.3
Return Rating: 77.0

Juan Manuel Cerundolo

Form Index: 52.9
ELO Rating: 769.5
Glicko2 Rating: 1550.5
Current Fatigue (minutes): 306.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 4.3
Clay: 9.2
Grass: 5.9
Serve Rating: 97.3
Return Rating: 92.9

Recent Matches

Vit Kopriva
✅ ✅ ❌ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Roman Andres Burruchaga (2-0) clay Rio 88 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Gustavo Heide (2-0) clay Rio 109 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Francisco Cerundolo (0-2) clay Buenos Aires 97 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Matteo Berrettini (2-0) clay Buenos Aires 94 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Alex Barrena (2-1) clay Buenos Aires 147 min

Juan Manuel Cerundolo
✅ ✅ ❌ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Yannick Hanfmann (2-1) clay Rio 169 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Luciano Darderi (2-1) clay Rio 137 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Pedro Martinez (0-2) clay Buenos Aires 123 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Daniel Altmaier (2-0) clay Buenos Aires 87 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Jordan Thompson (1-3) hard Australian Open 174 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Vit Kopriva
vs
0
Juan Manuel Cerundolo
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Quarterfinals in Rio, Brazil on clay at an ATP 500-level event pit Vit Kopriva against Juan Manuel Cerundolo. The model favors Kopriva to win (58.70% vs 41.30%) and projects a relatively short match of about 22.39 total games.

Match Analysis

Kopriva (rank 95) arrives with a slightly stronger form index (55.61) than Cerundolo (52.92) but a lower Elo (712.39 vs 769.55). Fatigue is a clear differentiator: Kopriva has spent 197 minutes on court in this event, while Cerundolo has accumulated 306 minutes. Surface strength indices are both low in absolute terms, with Cerundolo at 9.24 and Kopriva at 5.99, giving a small edge to Cerundolo on clay. There is a marked difference in serving profile: Cerundolo’s mean serve index (97.34) is substantially higher than Kopriva’s (62.30), and his mean return index (92.90) also surpasses Kopriva’s (77.00), both differences exceeding 5 points and likely to shape hold/break dynamics. Over the last three matches Kopriva has been efficient in Rio, posting two straight-sets victories (vs Burruchaga in 88 minutes and Heide in 109 minutes) after a prior loss in Buenos Aires to Francisco Cerundolo. Cerundolo reached this stage with more grinding wins in Rio (two three-set matches of 169 and 137 minutes) and a straight-sets defeat in Buenos Aires to Pedro Martinez. The contrast is clear: Kopriva’s recent wins were quicker and less draining, while Cerundolo has been tested in longer encounters.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 22.4 Most likely outcome: 22 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for the match is 15.35 total, while the double faults prediction is 3.91. On clay, predicted aces tend to be lower due to the slower surface and higher bounce, which dampens raw serve speed; the expected double faults are modest but could climb if rallies extend and fatigue sets in. Given Cerundolo’s much higher serve rating, he is likely to contribute the bulk of the predicted aces, though surface conditions will temper that advantage.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 15.3 Most likely: 15 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 3.9 Most likely: 3 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Kopriva’s edge in the model appears driven by fresher legs and recent straight-set form at this venue, offsetting Cerundolo’s superior serve and return ratings. The key factor to watch is how Kopriva handles Cerundolo’s serve early—if he secures a break, the match should favor his lower-fatigue profile.

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