Rio Brazil Clay Atp 500 Quarterfinals

Vit Kopriva vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Vit Kopriva

Rank: #95
59%
VS

Juan Manuel Cerundolo

Rank: #80
41%
Expected Total Games: 22.4
Predicted Winner: Vit Kopriva

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Player Metrics

Vit Kopriva

Form Index: 55.6
ELO Rating: 712.4
Glicko2 Rating: 1563.5
Current Fatigue (minutes): 197.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 3.2
Clay: 6.0
Grass: 4.8
Serve Rating: 62.3
Return Rating: 77.0

Juan Manuel Cerundolo

Form Index: 52.9
ELO Rating: 769.5
Glicko2 Rating: 1550.5
Current Fatigue (minutes): 306.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 4.3
Clay: 9.2
Grass: 5.9
Serve Rating: 97.3
Return Rating: 92.9

Recent Matches

Vit Kopriva

Juan Manuel Cerundolo

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Vit Kopriva
vs
0
Juan Manuel Cerundolo
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Quarterfinals in Rio, Brazil on clay at an ATP 500-level event pit Vit Kopriva against Juan Manuel Cerundolo. The model favors Kopriva to win (58.70% vs 41.30%) and projects a relatively short match of about 22.39 total games.

Match Analysis

Kopriva (rank 95) arrives with a slightly stronger form index (55.61) than Cerundolo (52.92) but a lower Elo (712.39 vs 769.55). Fatigue is a clear differentiator: Kopriva has spent 197 minutes on court in this event, while Cerundolo has accumulated 306 minutes. Surface strength indices are both low in absolute terms, with Cerundolo at 9.24 and Kopriva at 5.99, giving a small edge to Cerundolo on clay. There is a marked difference in serving profile: Cerundolo’s mean serve index (97.34) is substantially higher than Kopriva’s (62.30), and his mean return index (92.90) also surpasses Kopriva’s (77.00), both differences exceeding 5 points and likely to shape hold/break dynamics. Over the last three matches Kopriva has been efficient in Rio, posting two straight-sets victories (vs Burruchaga in 88 minutes and Heide in 109 minutes) after a prior loss in Buenos Aires to Francisco Cerundolo. Cerundolo reached this stage with more grinding wins in Rio (two three-set matches of 169 and 137 minutes) and a straight-sets defeat in Buenos Aires to Pedro Martinez. The contrast is clear: Kopriva’s recent wins were quicker and less draining, while Cerundolo has been tested in longer encounters.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 22.4 Most likely outcome: 22 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Probability distribution chart for total games in Vit Kopriva versus Juan Manuel Cerundolo. The X-axis shows possible total games values and the Y-axis shows the predicted probability percentage for each outcome.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total games in Vit Kopriva versus Juan Manuel Cerundolo. The curve rises from 0% to 100%, showing the cumulative probability for each games total threshold.

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Vit Kopriva - Juan Manuel Cerundolo) +0.3 Most likely spread: 0 (even number of games won)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Probability distribution chart for games spread in Vit Kopriva versus Juan Manuel Cerundolo. Positive values indicate Vit Kopriva winning more games, negative values indicate Juan Manuel Cerundolo winning more games.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for games spread in Vit Kopriva versus Juan Manuel Cerundolo. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each spread threshold.

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for the match is 15.35 total, while the double faults prediction is 3.91. On clay, predicted aces tend to be lower due to the slower surface and higher bounce, which dampens raw serve speed; the expected double faults are modest but could climb if rallies extend and fatigue sets in. Given Cerundolo’s much higher serve rating, he is likely to contribute the bulk of the predicted aces, though surface conditions will temper that advantage.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 15.3 Most likely: 15 aces
Expected Total Double Faults 3.9 Most likely: 3 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Probability distribution chart for total aces in Vit Kopriva versus Juan Manuel Cerundolo. Higher ace counts are more likely on faster surfaces like grass.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total aces in Vit Kopriva versus Juan Manuel Cerundolo. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each aces threshold.

Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Probability distribution chart for double faults in Vit Kopriva versus Juan Manuel Cerundolo. Clay surface matches tend to produce more double faults due to fatigue in longer rallies.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for double faults in Vit Kopriva versus Juan Manuel Cerundolo. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each double faults threshold.

Final Prediction

Kopriva’s edge in the model appears driven by fresher legs and recent straight-set form at this venue, offsetting Cerundolo’s superior serve and return ratings. The key factor to watch is how Kopriva handles Cerundolo’s serve early—if he secures a break, the match should favor his lower-fatigue profile.

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