Rio Brazil Clay Atp 500 Round of 16

Roman Andres Burruchaga vs Vit Kopriva: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Roman Andres Burruchaga

Rank: #104
39%
VS

Vit Kopriva

Rank: #95
61%
Expected Total Games: 22.0
Predicted Winner: Vit Kopriva

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Ranking Trends

Roman Andres Burruchaga

  • Current #104 2026-02-09
  • 3 mo ago #107 2025-11-17
  • 6 mo ago #144 2025-08-18
  • 9 mo ago #117 2025-05-19
  • 12 mo ago #137 2025-02-17

Vit Kopriva

  • Current #95 2026-02-09
  • 3 mo ago #102 2025-11-17
  • 6 mo ago #87 2025-08-18
  • 9 mo ago #85 2025-05-19
  • 12 mo ago #120 2025-02-17

Player Metrics

Roman Andres Burruchaga

Form Index: 50.8
ELO Rating: 609.3
Glicko2 Rating: 1542.5
Current Fatigue (minutes): 96.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 1.7
Clay: 4.5
Grass: 5.1
Serve Rating: 55.4
Return Rating: 93.6

Vit Kopriva

Form Index: 59.0
ELO Rating: 696.6
Glicko2 Rating: 1559.7
Current Fatigue (minutes): 109.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 5.5
Clay: 7.0
Grass: 5.0
Serve Rating: 96.6
Return Rating: 93.2

Recent Matches

Roman Andres Burruchaga
✅ ❌ ✅ ❌ ✅

Vit Kopriva
✅ ❌ ✅ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Gustavo Heide (2-0) clay Rio 109 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Francisco Cerundolo (0-2) clay Buenos Aires 97 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Matteo Berrettini (2-0) clay Buenos Aires 94 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Alex Barrena (2-1) clay Buenos Aires 147 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Taylor Fritz (0-3) hard Australian Open 174 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Roman Andres Burruchaga
vs
1
Vit Kopriva
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 1
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

This round-of-16 clash in Rio, Brazil is played on clay at an ATP 500-level event and pits Roman Andres Burruchaga against Vit Kopriva. The model favors Vit Kopriva (61.29%) over Burruchaga (38.71%), with a predicted total of about 22.02 games in the match.

Match Analysis

Kopriva arrives with the higher ranking (95 vs 104), a stronger Elo (696.63 vs 609.28) and a better recent form index (58.96 vs 50.83). Burruchaga shows an elite return index (93.58) compared with Kopriva’s similar return (93.17), so return games should be competitive. The mean serve indices diverge sharply: Kopriva’s serve index (96.61) is far higher than Burruchaga’s (55.42), a gap that will shape short points and service holds. Both players carry match minutes into Rio—Burruchaga 96 and Kopriva 109—so accumulated fatigue is a factor, with Kopriva slightly more taxed. Over the last three matches each player is 2-1. Burruchaga beat Camilo Ugo Carabelli and Laslo Djere and lost a long 217-minute match to Tomas Martin Etcheverry. Kopriva’s wins include Matteo Berrettini and Gustavo Heide, with a straight-sets loss to Francisco Cerundolo. These results show both players can win on clay but Kopriva’s higher Elo and serve metrics give him the edge in dictating rhythm.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 22.0 Most likely outcome: 22 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Roman Andres Burruchaga - Vit Kopriva) -0.1 Most likely spread: 0 (even number of games won)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for this match is modest: predicted aces total about 12.97. On clay, slower ball and higher bounce typically cut down aces, so the aces prediction reflects surface impact. The double faults prediction is 5.16 expected double faults; clay’s longer rallies and physical toll can increase missed second serves. Given Kopriva’s significantly higher serve rating, he is the primary contributor to the predicted aces while also influencing serve pressure and occasional double faults.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 13.0 Most likely: 12 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 5.2 Most likely: 5 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Kopriva’s superior serve profile and higher Elo underpin his projected advantage on clay despite similar return capabilities. The key factor to watch is how Burruchaga’s strong return game handles Kopriva’s potent serve—breaking that rhythm is Burruchaga’s clearest path to an upset.

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