Acapulco Mexico Hard Atp 500 Round of 16

Yibing Wu vs Sho Shimabukuro: AI Prediction | Games, Aces & Double Faults

Yibing Wu

Rank: #142
53%
VS

Sho Shimabukuro

Rank: #130
47%
Expected Total Games: 22.4
Predicted Winner: Yibing Wu

Ranking Trends

Yibing Wu

  • Current Rank: #142 (2026-02-23)
  • 3 Months Ago: #181 (2025-11-24)
  • 6 Months Ago: #211 (2025-08-25)
  • 9 Months Ago: #401 (2025-05-26)
  • 12 Months Ago: #411 (2025-02-24)

Sho Shimabukuro

  • Current Rank: #130 (2026-02-23)
  • 3 Months Ago: #146 (2025-11-24)
  • 6 Months Ago: #198 (2025-08-25)
  • 9 Months Ago: #189 (2025-05-26)
  • 12 Months Ago: #189 (2025-02-24)

Player Metrics

Yibing Wu

Form Index: 60.7
ELO Rating: 645.7
Glicko2 Rating: 1552.6
Current Fatigue (minutes): 269.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 5.7
Clay: 1.9
Grass: 2.7
Serve Rating: 53.8
Return Rating: 37.9

Sho Shimabukuro

Form Index: 66.1
ELO Rating: 482.1
Glicko2 Rating: 1545.9
Current Fatigue (minutes): 161.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 5.3
Clay: 3.8
Grass: 3.3
Serve Rating: 96.3
Return Rating: 87.5

Recent Matches

Yibing Wu
✅ ✅ ✅ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Casper Ruud (2-0) hard Acapulco 125 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Rinky Hijikata (2-0) hard Acapulco 87 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Juan Pablo Ficovich (1-0) hard Acapulco 57 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Zachary Svajda (0-2) hard Delray Beach 78 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Colton Smith (2-0) hard Delray Beach 94 min

Sho Shimabukuro
✅ ✅ ✅ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Adrian Mannarino (2-0) hard Acapulco 78 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Zachary Svajda (1-0) hard Acapulco 16 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Rafael De Alba (2-0) hard Acapulco 67 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Marcos Giron (0-2) hard Delray Beach 86 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Adam Walton (2-0) hard Delray Beach 83 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Yibing Wu
vs
0
Sho Shimabukuro
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

This is a Round of 16 showdown at Acapulco (Mexico) on hard courts in a 500-level tournament. The model narrowly favors Yibing Wu to win — 52.59% for Wu versus 47.41% for Sho Shimabukuro — with an expected total of about 22.41 games in the match.

Match Analysis

Wu arrives ranked 142 with a form index of 60.66 and an Elo of 645.72; he has accumulated 269 minutes on court this week, a sign of heavier time spent in earlier rounds. His surface strength index on hard is 5.66 and his mean serve index is 53.80 while his mean return index is 37.90. Shimabukuro is ranked 130 with a slightly higher form index of 66.14 but a lower Elo of 482.07; his tournament fatigue is lower at 161 minutes. His surface strength is 5.28. The mean serve index gap is large (Shimabukuro 96.28 vs Wu 53.80), and the mean return index gap is also substantial (Shimabukuro 87.50 vs Wu 37.90), so serve/return dynamics are likely decisive. Both players come in unbeaten at this event over their last three matches. Wu’s wins include longer, more demanding matches (match durations of 125, 87 and 57 minutes), which help explain his higher fatigue total. Shimabukuro has recorded shorter matches recently (78, 16 and 67 minutes), suggesting fresher legs and a sharper serve/return rhythm through the early rounds.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 22.4 Most likely outcome: 22 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

Aces prediction for the match sits at about 12.95 total, and the expected double faults figure is 4.17. On hard courts — a medium-paced surface with a consistent bounce — these predicted aces and predicted double faults match expectations for balanced serving conditions. Given Shimabukuro’s markedly higher serve rating, he should contribute a disproportionate share of the aces, while Wu’s lower serve index suggests fewer free points on serve.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 12.9 Most likely: 12 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 4.2 Most likely: 4 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

The model gives Wu a slim edge driven mainly by his higher Elo and consistent results here, but the match will likely turn on Shimabukuro’s serving and returning firepower versus Wu’s recent match toughness and court time. Key factor to watch: whether Wu can neutralize Shimabukuro’s serve and keep return games competitive despite the serve/return index gap.

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