Rome Italy Clay Masters 1000 Round of 128

Marco Trungelliti vs Zachary Svajda: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Marco Trungelliti

Rank: #78
34%
VS

Zachary Svajda

Rank: #90
66%
Expected Total Games: 23.7
Predicted Winner: Zachary Svajda

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Ranking Trends

Marco Trungelliti

  • Current #78 2026-05-04
  • 3 mo ago #134 2026-02-02
  • 6 mo ago #137 2025-11-03
  • 9 mo ago #182 2025-08-04
  • 12 mo ago #183 2025-05-05

Zachary Svajda

  • Current #90 2026-05-04
  • 3 mo ago #109 2026-02-02
  • 6 mo ago #142 2025-11-03
  • 9 mo ago #133 2025-08-04
  • 12 mo ago #229 2025-05-05

Player Metrics

Marco Trungelliti

Form Index: 40.6
ELO Rating: 1602.2
Glicko2 Rating: 1667.1
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 14.3
Clay: 13.4
Grass: 8.0
Serve Rating: 94.9
Return Rating: 93.5

Zachary Svajda

Form Index: 33.4
ELO Rating: 1602.2
Glicko2 Rating: 1689.2
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 24.7
Clay: 7.5
Grass: 5.7
Serve Rating: 94.2
Return Rating: 87.1

Recent Matches

Marco Trungelliti
❌ ✅ ❌ ❌ ✅

Zachary Svajda
❌ ❌ ❌ ✅ ✅

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Marco Trungelliti
vs
0
Zachary Svajda
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Rome, Italy — Round of 128 on clay at a Masters 1000 event sees Marco Trungelliti face Zachary Svajda in an intriguing early clash. The model gives Zachary Svajda the edge: 66.13% to win versus 33.87% for Trungelliti, with a predicted total of about 23.7 games in the match.

Match Analysis

On paper this is a tight matchup. Trungelliti is ranked 78 to Svajda’s 90, and their Elo ratings are virtually identical (1602.18 vs 1602.16). Trungelliti carries a higher form index (40.57) than Svajda (33.41), and both arrive fresh with zero cumulative fatigue recorded in the tournament. Surface strength indexes are low for both on clay (Trungelliti 13.36, Svajda 7.49), suggesting neither player has a pronounced clay-court advantage. Serving profiles are similar — mean serve indices of 94.93 for Trungelliti and 94.18 for Svajda show no clear serving dominance. However, Trungelliti’s mean return index (93.55) is notably higher than Svajda’s (87.06), a difference of more than five points that could make return games pivotal on slow clay. Recent results favor neither consistently: Trungelliti has one win and two losses in his last three (beat Borna Gojo, lost to Daniel Merida and Hamad Medjedovic), while Svajda has struggled with three straight defeats in the listed matches, including two straight-set losses in recent clay events.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 23.7 Most likely outcome: 23 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Marco Trungelliti - Zachary Svajda) +1.6 Most likely spread: +1 (Marco Trungelliti wins 1 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for the match is modest — a predicted aces total of about 5.2 — and the expected double faults are 4.12. On clay, slower ball speed and higher bounce typically suppress ace production and can increase pressure-related errors; that aligns with the predicted aces and expected double faults here. Since neither player has a significantly superior serve rating, there’s no strong reason to expect one player to inflate the ace count.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 5.2 Most likely: 5 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 4.1 Most likely: 4 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

🎯 Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

34.4% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Marco Trungelliti's perspective)

0-2 Most likely set score (41.6%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Despite similar Elo and serving numbers, the pre-match model favors Svajda, reflected in the 66.13% probability. A key factor to watch will be Trungelliti’s returning: his superior return index could trouble Svajda’s service games and determine whether the match stays as short as projected or turns into a longer clay grind.

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