Beijing Beijing, CHN Hard Wta 1000 Quarterfinals

Coco Gauff vs Xinran Sun Prediction

Coco Gauff

Rank: #4
91%
VS

Xinran Sun

9%
Expected Total Games: 19.3
Predicted Winner: Coco Gauff

Why the Model Favors Coco Gauff

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Overall strength +14.3 Coco Gauff
Serve & return game +9.6 Coco Gauff
Recent record by level +8.1 Coco Gauff
Surface fit +6.5 Coco Gauff
Overall record & opposition quality +5.1 Coco Gauff

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 91% for Coco Gauff. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Ranking Trends

Coco Gauff

  • Current #4 2026-09-28
  • 3 mo ago #7 2026-06-29
  • 6 mo ago #3 2026-03-30
  • 9 mo ago #3 2025-12-29
  • 12 mo ago #3 2025-09-29

Xinran Sun

Player Metrics

Coco Gauff

Form Index: 61.6
ELO Rating: 2127.3
Glicko2 Rating: 2118.3
Current Fatigue (minutes): 138.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 80.2
Clay: 61.0
Grass: 59.7
Serve Rating: 96.0
Return Rating: 92.8

Xinran Sun

Form Index: 37.4
ELO Rating: 1571.2
Glicko2 Rating: 1803.3
Current Fatigue (minutes): 134.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 22.4
Clay: 9.4
Grass: 6.0
Serve Rating: 97.2
Return Rating: 93.2

Recent Matches

Coco Gauff
✅ ❌ ✅ ✅ ✅

Xinran Sun
✅ ✅ ❌ ❌ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Cristina Bucsa (2-0) hard Beijing 91 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Eva Lys (1-0) hard Beijing 43 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs None (0-0) None None 0 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs None (0-0) None None 0 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs None (0-0) None None 0 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Coco Gauff
vs
0
Xinran Sun
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Gauff is a strong favourite in the Beijing Quarterfinals, with a 91% chance of winning to Sun’s 9%. The projected match total is 19.3 games.

Match Analysis

The ranking gap is substantial: Gauff is fourth, while Sun is ranked 1000th. Gauff’s stronger overall level and record against quality opposition give her a firmer base, while the forecast also favors her in the serve-and-return exchanges. Gauff has the stronger hard-court profile, and she arrives after beating Camila Osorio in three sets. Sun has earned attention with a straight-sets win over Cristina Bucsa, but Gauff’s success across higher levels of competition is a significant separator.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 19.3 Most likely outcome: 18 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Coco Gauff - Xinran Sun) +4.5 Most likely spread: +5 (Coco Gauff wins 5 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

Gauff is projected for 2.2 aces and 4.1 double faults, while Sun is projected for 1.4 aces and 3.7 double faults. Their serve profiles are close, so the expected difference in aces is small, with neither projected to produce many free points on the hard court.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 3.6 Most likely: 2 aces Per player: Coco Gauff 2.2 + Xinran Sun 1.4
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 7.8 Most likely: 6 double faults Per player: Coco Gauff 4.1 + Xinran Sun 3.7

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

🎯 Aces by Player

Coco Gauff

Expected 2.2 aces

Xinran Sun

Expected 1.4 aces

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

❌ Double Faults by Player

Coco Gauff

Expected 4.1 double faults

Xinran Sun

Expected 3.7 double faults

Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

25.0% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Coco Gauff's perspective)

2-0 Most likely set score (65.2%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Sun’s best chance is to pressure Gauff’s second serve and make her projected double faults costly. If Gauff serves more cleanly, her broader advantage in level and hard-court fit should be difficult to overcome.

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