Beijing Beijing, CHN Hard Wta 1000 Round of 16

Daria Snigur vs Mirra Andreeva Prediction

Daria Snigur

Rank: #46
15%
VS

Mirra Andreeva

Rank: #5
85%
Expected Total Games: 19.1
Predicted Winner: Mirra Andreeva

Why the Model Favors Mirra Andreeva

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Overall strength +9.8 Mirra Andreeva
Serve & return game +8.0 Mirra Andreeva
Overall record & opposition quality +6.9 Mirra Andreeva
Recent record by level +5.5 Mirra Andreeva
Age +3.9 Mirra Andreeva

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 85% for Mirra Andreeva. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Ranking Trends

Daria Snigur

  • Current #46 2026-09-28
  • 3 mo ago #77 2026-06-29
  • 6 mo ago #93 2026-03-30
  • 9 mo ago #153 2025-12-29
  • 12 mo ago #184 2025-09-29

Mirra Andreeva

  • Current #5 2026-09-28
  • 3 mo ago #5 2026-06-29
  • 6 mo ago #10 2026-03-30
  • 9 mo ago #9 2025-12-29
  • 12 mo ago #5 2025-09-29

Player Metrics

Daria Snigur

Form Index: 55.1
ELO Rating: 1784.9
Glicko2 Rating: 1841.9
Current Fatigue (minutes): 312.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 36.5
Clay: 20.9
Grass: 21.1
Serve Rating: 96.4
Return Rating: 91.1

Mirra Andreeva

Form Index: 51.2
ELO Rating: 1952.2
Glicko2 Rating: 2002.9
Current Fatigue (minutes): 180.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 55.1
Clay: 69.9
Grass: 40.4
Serve Rating: 96.6
Return Rating: 89.9

Recent Matches

Daria Snigur
✅ ✅ ✅ ❌ ❌

Mirra Andreeva
✅ ✅ ❌ ✅ ❌

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Daria Snigur
vs
0
Mirra Andreeva
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Mirra Andreeva is favored in Beijing’s Round of 16, with an 85% chance of winning to Daria Snigur’s 15%, and 19.1 games expected. Snigur brings a three-match winning streak into the contest, but the forecast gives Andreeva a clear advantage.

Match Analysis

Andreeva’s No. 5 ranking, compared with Snigur’s No. 46, reflects the gap in their overall level. She is also the stronger hard-court player, and the model leans toward her in the serve-and-return exchanges, even though their serve profiles are nearly level. Snigur’s Beijing run includes a win over Jasmine Paolini, a notable counterpoint to Andreeva’s advantage. Andreeva has spent 180 minutes on court this tournament, compared with Snigur’s 312, so she also comes in with less accumulated court time.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 19.1 Most likely outcome: 18 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Daria Snigur - Mirra Andreeva) -5.3 Most likely spread: -6 (Mirra Andreeva wins 6 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

Snigur is projected to hit 1.0 ace and 2.6 double faults, while Andreeva is projected for 2.4 aces and 3.3 double faults. Their serve profiles are close, which fits the low ace estimates, while the forecast gives Andreeva a slightly higher double-fault total.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 3.4 Most likely: 2 aces Per player: Daria Snigur 1.0 + Mirra Andreeva 2.4
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 5.8 Most likely: 4 double faults Per player: Daria Snigur 2.6 + Mirra Andreeva 3.3

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

🎯 Aces by Player

Daria Snigur

Expected 1.0 aces

Mirra Andreeva

Expected 2.4 aces

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

❌ Double Faults by Player

Daria Snigur

Expected 2.6 double faults

Mirra Andreeva

Expected 3.3 double faults

Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

20.8% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Daria Snigur's perspective)

0-2 Most likely set score (66.1%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Snigur’s three straight Beijing wins, especially her result against Paolini, are the clearest way she could upset the forecast. If she maintains that level, she could make Andreeva’s hard-court advantage less decisive.

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