Beijing Beijing, CHN Hard Wta 1000 Quarterfinals

Maria Sakkari vs Elina Svitolina Prediction

Maria Sakkari

Rank: #33
36%
VS

Elina Svitolina

Rank: #7
64%
Expected Total Games: 21.2
Predicted Winner: Elina Svitolina

Why the Model Favors Elina Svitolina

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Overall strength +7.4 Elina Svitolina
Recent record by level +5.3 Elina Svitolina
Overall record & opposition quality +3.8 Elina Svitolina
Recent form +3.5 Maria Sakkari
Serve & return game +3.1 Elina Svitolina

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 64% for Elina Svitolina. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Also available in Claude and Perplexity. Query these predictions in plain language: our native connector lets your AI assistant call our models on demand, no code.

Set it up

Ranking Trends

Maria Sakkari

  • Current #33 2026-09-28
  • 3 mo ago #43 2026-06-29
  • 6 mo ago #36 2026-03-30
  • 9 mo ago #52 2025-12-29
  • 12 mo ago #56 2025-09-29

Elina Svitolina

  • Current #7 2026-09-28
  • 3 mo ago #8 2026-06-29
  • 6 mo ago #7 2026-03-30
  • 9 mo ago #14 2025-12-29
  • 12 mo ago #13 2025-09-29

Player Metrics

Maria Sakkari

Form Index: 40.5
ELO Rating: 1737.6
Glicko2 Rating: 1777.6
Current Fatigue (minutes): 73.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 40.5
Clay: 24.3
Grass: 25.3
Serve Rating: 95.8
Return Rating: 89.2

Elina Svitolina

Form Index: 45.5
ELO Rating: 1946.9
Glicko2 Rating: 2043.3
Current Fatigue (minutes): 121.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 62.2
Clay: 62.9
Grass: 29.1
Serve Rating: 95.9
Return Rating: 89.2

Recent Matches

Maria Sakkari
✅ ❌ ✅ ✅ ❌

Elina Svitolina
✅ ❌ ✅ ✅ ✅

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Maria Sakkari
vs
1
Elina Svitolina
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 1
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Elina Svitolina is favoured, with a 64% chance of beating Maria Sakkari’s 36%. The forecast is for 21.2 games in this Beijing quarterfinal.

Match Analysis

Svitolina’s higher ranking and stronger record on hard courts underpin her advantage. She has also been more successful against stronger opposition and at this level, while the two players’ serve and return games are closely matched. Sakkari has a counterargument in her recent form: she beat Storm Hunter in straight sets, while Svitolina needed three sets to get past Katerina Siniakova. Sakkari has also spent less time on court in Beijing, 73 minutes compared with Svitolina’s 121.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 21.2 Most likely outcome: 20 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Maria Sakkari - Elina Svitolina) -2.5 Most likely spread: -3 (Elina Svitolina wins 3 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

Sakkari is projected to hit 1.9 aces and make 3.5 double faults, while Svitolina is forecast for 2.8 aces and 3.5 double faults. Their serving profiles are similar, which points to a small gap in aces and nearly identical double-fault totals.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 4.8 Most likely: 3 aces Per player: Maria Sakkari 1.9 + Elina Svitolina 2.8
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 7.0 Most likely: 6 double faults Per player: Maria Sakkari 3.5 + Elina Svitolina 3.5

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

🎯 Aces by Player

Maria Sakkari

Expected 1.9 aces

Elina Svitolina

Expected 2.8 aces

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

❌ Double Faults by Player

Maria Sakkari

Expected 3.5 double faults

Elina Svitolina

Expected 3.5 double faults

Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

19.0% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Maria Sakkari's perspective)

0-2 Most likely set score (44.3%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Sakkari’s lower workload could matter if the match becomes physically demanding. Turning that freshness into pressure on Svitolina’s serve would give her a way to upset the forecast.

Get Daily Tennis Predictions

Enjoyed this analysis? Subscribe to our Telegram channel and receive daily AI-driven tennis predictions directly on your phone.

Join Our Telegram Channel