Champions League 2024-25: how our title odds moved
A backtest: today's engine re-run 9 times across the 2024-25 league phase, each run seeing only the matches played before its date, never the predictions we published at the time.
The model missed this one
Paris started 10th in the model's title order at 1.0%. They won it. This one the model got wrong.
Title odds, and how the season really ended
Each line is one club's chance of winning the competition, recomputed from scratch at that date, then carried through the real knockout to the club that lifted it. Coloured lines are the clubs that led the title order at some point, plus Paris, who won it. Grey lines are the rest of the field.
Title odds, then the result
model retrospective · 2024-25 · 10,000 simulated seasons per cut
Dated columns are model runs across the league phase, each one a rerun with the clock wound back to that date. The shaded columns after them are not forecasts: they are what actually happened, each surviving club shown as one of the clubs still in it, so a line ends where that club went out and Paris finishes at 100%. Tap a club to isolate its line.
Data table: title probability by cut
| Club | Pre-season | 20 Sep | 3 Oct | 24 Oct | 7 Nov | 28 Nov | 12 Dec | 23 Jan | 30 Jan | Last 16 | Last 8 | Last 4 | Final | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Man City | 43.4% | 37.9% | 43.8% | 46.1% | 36.2% | 28.2% | 18.1% | 10.8% | 9.9% | <0.1% | - | - | - | - |
| Real Madrid | 23.5% | 24.0% | 16.5% | 19.1% | 12.3% | 8.1% | 10.9% | 13.6% | 13.8% | 6.2% | 12.5% | <0.1% | - | - |
| Liverpool | 3.2% | 4.7% | 6.4% | 8.1% | 13.4% | 15.8% | 17.8% | 22.2% | 16.1% | 6.2% | <0.1% | - | - | - |
| Arsenal | 3.5% | 3.4% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 9.8% | 12.0% | 15.6% | 17.4% | 6.2% | 12.5% | 25.0% | <0.1% | - |
| Bayern München | 14.9% | 16.2% | 10.5% | 5.6% | 8.5% | 9.3% | 12.0% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 12.5% | <0.1% | - | - |
| Inter | 3.1% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 9.7% | 10.3% | 8.8% | 10.7% | 14.0% | 6.2% | 12.5% | 25.0% | 50.0% | <0.1% |
| Paris winner | 1.0% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 1.6% | 3.0% | 6.2% | 12.5% | 25.0% | 50.0% | 100.0% |
What we would have said, cut by cut
Paris's title probability at each cut, and where they sat in the model's title order. Before a ball is kicked means the state on the day of the season's first match anywhere in Europe, months before the league phase starts. Every later cut is the morning after that matchday finished, so a round is either fully counted or not counted at all.
| Cut | Date | League phase played | P(Paris win) | Their rank in our order | Top 5? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before a ball is kicked | 2024-07-09 | 0 / 144 | 1.0% | 10 | no |
| After matchday 1 | 2024-09-20 | 18 / 144 | 1.5% | 9 | no |
| After matchday 2 | 2024-10-03 | 36 / 144 | 0.9% | 11 | no |
| After matchday 3 | 2024-10-24 | 54 / 144 | 0.6% | 11 | no |
| After matchday 4 | 2024-11-07 | 72 / 144 | 0.3% | 13 | no |
| After matchday 5 | 2024-11-28 | 90 / 144 | 0.3% | 13 | no |
| After matchday 6 | 2024-12-12 | 108 / 144 | 0.6% | 13 | no |
| After matchday 7 | 2025-01-23 | 126 / 144 | 1.6% | 10 | no |
| After matchday 8 | 2025-01-30 | 144 / 144 | 3.0% | 10 | no |
How do you stop the rerun from cheating?
Every point on this page is computed with only the information that existed on that date. Ratings, form and the model itself are all rolled back, so the rerun can never peek at a result it is supposed to be forecasting.
More on how this model scores
Reuse this data — CC BY 4.0
The Champions League title-odds retrospective (backtest) dataset is free to reuse, including commercially, under CC BY 4.0 — attribution with a link is the only requirement. Copy-paste credit:
Data: <a href="https://www.predixsport.com/champions-league-title-retrospective/2025">Champions League title-odds retrospective (backtest) by Predixsport</a> (CC BY 4.0)