Virtus Bologna
Euroleague ELO profile, season simulation & model record · 8 seasons covered
Also listed in our corpus as Virtus Segafredo Bologna, Virtus VidiVici, Kinder Virtus Bologna. Euroleague team names carry the title sponsor of the season, so this page keeps one stable address for the team itself.
Season ELO trajectory
One point per game day: the team's ELO rating after that day's result, playoffs and Final Four included. Euroleague ELO is season-relative in our engine: every team starts each season at 0, so the value reads as a gap to that season's league average and negative numbers are normal, not a red flag. Because of the re-seed, trajectories are shown one season at a time and seasons are compared through their peak and final values in the table below. Hover a point for the date and the team's league-wide ELO position that day.
Season simulation
2025-26: what the model simulated, and what happened
Missed the playoffs 14W–24L regular season
Full Euroleague simulation: every team's odds and the projected bracket →
How predictable is Virtus Bologna?
Chaos team 2025-26 · 32 predicted games season backtest
We grade every game forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade; say 70% and it does not, bad grade, with bigger penalties the more confident we were. Averaged over the season, Virtus Bologna was 19.7% harder to call than the Euroleague average. A team can be easy to call while losing: a predictable season is not a good season. How this is measured.
| Season | Games | Winner acc | Euroleague avg | Confident calls (≥65%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 season backtest | 32 | 56.2% | 67.0% | 61.5% (league 75.8%) |
Share of predicted games our published game-day prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average of the same season. In 2025-26 Virtus Bologna won 3 games as a clear underdog (we gave them 35% or less) and lost 2 as a clear favourite (65% or more).
Season by season
| Season | GP | Pos | Start | Peak | End |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 38 | #19 | +14 | +42 | -189 |
| 2024-25 as Virtus Segafredo Bologna | 34 | #17 | -30 | -30 | -123 |
| 2023-24 | 36 | #15 | -18 | +101 | -99 |
| 2022-23 | 34 | #14 | -38 | +12 | -82 |
| 2007-08 as Virtus VidiVici | 14 | #24 | +14 | +14 | -200 |
| 2002-03 | 20 | #22 | -21 | +56 | -143 |
| 2001-02 as Kinder Virtus Bologna | 22 | #2 | +26 | +235 | +160 |
| 2000-01 | 22 | #1 | -5 | +251 | +237 |
GP counts every Euroleague game in the corpus including the playoffs and the Final Four. Pos is the team's league-wide ELO rank on its last game day of that season, ranked against every team's last known rating on that date. Start, Peak and End are season-relative ELO values (each season re-seeds at 0). The "as" line appears when the team's registered name changed, which in the Euroleague usually means a new title sponsor rather than a new team.
Covered players: projection predictability
| Player | Pos | Starts | Predictability score |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mouhamet Diouf | C | 19 | 12.6 |
| Carsen Edwards | PG | 29 | 8.2 |
| Luca Vildoza | PG | 19 | 5.4 |
| Derrick Alston Jr. | PF | 23 | 0.7 |
| Karim Jallow | PF | 21 | -6.6 |
Every Virtus Bologna player with a predictability profile: started games only, 15-start minimum. The score measures how well our projections call the player's points, rebounds and PIR against a naive rolling average (higher is more predictable). Players without projection coverage are not listed.
Recent games: model vs reality
| Date | Opponent | Model said | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 16, 2026 | at Maccabi Tel Aviv | L Virtus Bologna 20.5% | W 89-85 ✗ |
| Apr 10, 2026 | vs Baskonia Vitoria-Gasteiz | W Virtus Bologna 59.9% | L 72-82 ✗ |
| Apr 07, 2026 | vs FC Bayern Munich | W Virtus Bologna 55.7% | L 80-85 ✗ |
| Apr 03, 2026 | vs Valencia Basket | W Virtus Bologna 55.1% | L 81-94 ✗ |
| Mar 31, 2026 | vs Paris Basketball | W Virtus Bologna 61.4% | L 82-103 ✗ |
| Mar 26, 2026 | at Olimpia Milano | L Virtus Bologna 27.3% | L 87-103 ✓ |
| Mar 19, 2026 | at Hapoel Tel Aviv | L Virtus Bologna 26.7% | L 91-109 ✓ |
| Mar 11, 2026 | vs Partizan Belgrade | W Virtus Bologna 72.8% | L 82-88 ✗ |
| Mar 05, 2026 | at Real Madrid | L Virtus Bologna 21.5% | L 84-92 ✓ |
| Feb 25, 2026 | vs FC Barcelona | W Virtus Bologna 52.9% | W 85-80 ✓ |
Reuse this data — CC BY 4.0
The Euroleague team ELO ratings dataset is free to reuse, including commercially, under CC BY 4.0 — attribution with a link is the only requirement. Copy-paste credit:
Data: <a href="https://www.predixsport.com/euroleague-teams/virtus-bologna">Euroleague team ELO ratings by Predixsport</a> (CC BY 4.0)Or embed the live, self-updating widget (the credit link is built in):
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<a href="https://www.predixsport.com/euroleague-teams/virtus-bologna">Euroleague team ELO ratings by Predixsport</a>