Virtus Bologna

Euroleague ELO profile, season simulation & model record · 9 seasons covered

ELO +18 · #8 2026-27 4W-3L · 7 games Chaos club Peak ELO +251 · 2000-01 Updated Oct 21, 2026

Also listed in our corpus as Virtus Segafredo Bologna, Virtus VidiVici, Kinder Virtus Bologna. Euroleague team names carry the title sponsor of the season, so this page keeps one stable address for the team itself.

Season ELO trajectory

One point per game day: the team's ELO rating after that day's result, playoffs and Final Four included. Euroleague ELO is season-relative in our engine: every team starts each season at 0, so the value reads as a gap to that season's league average and negative numbers are normal, not a red flag. Because of the re-seed, trajectories are shown one season at a time and seasons are compared through their peak and final values in the table below. Hover a point for the date and the team's league-wide ELO position that day.

Season simulation

2026-27 season simulation

Title odds: 0.0% 14.5 projected wins · currently 4W-3L · as of 2026-10-26

Play-in 4.0%
Playoffs 0.5%
Final Four 0.0%
Final 0.0%
Euroleague champion 0.0%

Probabilities from 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the remaining schedule (single table, play-in, best-of-five quarter-finals and the neutral-venue Final Four), refreshed daily in season.

Full Euroleague simulation: every team's odds and the projected bracket →

How predictable is Virtus Bologna?

Chaos team 2025-26 · 32 predicted games season backtest

We grade every game forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade; say 70% and it does not, bad grade, with bigger penalties the more confident we were. Averaged over the season, Virtus Bologna was 19.7% harder to call than the Euroleague average. A team can be easy to call while losing: a predictable season is not a good season. How this is measured.

SeasonGamesWinner accEuroleague avgConfident calls (≥65%)
2026-27 1 100.0% 50.0% 100.0% (league 75.0%)
2025-26 season backtest 32 56.2% 67.0% 61.5% (league 75.8%)

Share of predicted games our published game-day prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average of the same season. In 2025-26 Virtus Bologna won 3 games as a clear underdog (we gave them 35% or less) and lost 2 as a clear favourite (65% or more).

Season by season

SeasonGPPosStartPeakEnd
2026-27 7 #8 -17 +33 +18
2025-26 38 #19 +14 +42 -189
2024-25 as Virtus Segafredo Bologna 34 #17 -30 -30 -123
2023-24 36 #15 -18 +101 -99
2022-23 34 #14 -38 +12 -82
2007-08 as Virtus VidiVici 14 #24 +14 +14 -200
2002-03 20 #22 -21 +56 -143
2001-02 as Kinder Virtus Bologna 22 #2 +26 +235 +160
2000-01 22 #1 -5 +251 +237

GP counts every Euroleague game in the corpus including the playoffs and the Final Four. Pos is the team's league-wide ELO rank on its last game day of that season, ranked against every team's last known rating on that date. Start, Peak and End are season-relative ELO values (each season re-seeds at 0). The "as" line appears when the team's registered name changed, which in the Euroleague usually means a new title sponsor rather than a new team.

Recent games: model vs reality

DateOpponentModel saidResult
Oct 21, 2026 at Hapoel Tel Aviv L Virtus Bologna 25.4% L 81-90 ✓

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