Anadolu Efes Istanbul vs Paris Basketball Prediction · EuroLeague 2026-27 Regular Season · November 5, 2026
Anadolu Efes Istanbul
Paris Basketball
Why the Model Favors Anadolu Efes Istanbul
The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.
Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 65% for Anadolu Efes Istanbul. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →
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HOMEAnadolu Efes Istanbul
AWAYParis Basketball
Starting Five Matchup
Key Prediction Insights
Anadolu Efes Istanbul is favoured at home, with a 65% chance of winning. Its 4-5 record is only one win better than Paris Basketball’s 3-6 mark, so the forecast points to advantages beyond the teams’ records.
Total Points & Spread Analysis
The expected total is 180 points, suggesting a game with plenty of scoring. Efes is forecast to win by five, a modest margin that points to a competitive game rather than a comfortable home result.
Full probability curves from our Poisson (total) and Negative-Binomial (spread) models: both the distribution (PDF) and the cumulative probability (CDF).
Total Points · expected 179.9
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(≤ X)
Spread (Anadolu Efes Istanbul − Paris Basketball) · expected +5.0
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(≤ X)
ELO Rating Trends
Both teams’ ratings are rising over their last five games, up 71 points for Efes and 23 for Paris.
Anadolu Efes Istanbul
Season-relative ELO (0 = league-average team; resets each season).
Paris Basketball
Season-relative ELO (0 = league-average team; resets each season).
EuroLeague ELO Power Rankings
See how every team stacks up: full ELO ratings, recent form and the season progression chart.
View Full ELO RatingsRecent Form: Last 5 Games
Anadolu Efes Istanbul
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Besiktas Istanbul | 89 | 80 | +9 | |
| Hapoel IBI Tel Aviv | 88 | 118 | -30 | |
| Panathinaikos AKTOR Athens | 83 | 68 | +15 |
Paris Basketball
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valencia Basket | 93 | 104 | -11 | |
| Dubai Basketball | 99 | 93 | +6 | |
| Maccabi Rapyd Tel Aviv | 99 | 94 | +5 |
Game Analysis
Home court is the strongest force in Efes’s favour, with its higher team-strength rating adding support. Paris’s scoring and shooting profile is the main counterweight, so its perimeter production could keep the visitors close. Efes also has a smaller projected advantage on the glass and around the paint.
Efes has two projected scoring sources in Dario Saric, at 15 points and a 17.8 PIR, and Cameron Payne, at 14 points and 2.7 made threes. For Paris, Tyson Etienne is projected for 13 points and 3.3 threes, making his outside shooting an important answer to Efes’s home advantage. Recent results are mixed for Efes, with two wins in three, while Paris has won two of its last three.
Final Prediction
If Paris makes its perimeter shooting count, particularly through Etienne, it can offset Efes’s home-court advantage. Efes’s ability to limit that outside scoring could decide whether the forecast margin holds.
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